The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.41% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.45%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.7%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.79%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
New tariffs unveiled late last night
The government announced a new round of tariffs late last night, surprising markets, which were closed in the U.S. The new rates, which will be implemented on October 1, include:
- 100% "on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product, unless a company is building their [sic] pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America,” said a presidential post on the Truth Social platform.
- 25% on heavy trucks. "The US sources 78% of heavy truck imports from Mexico and 15% from Canada, so a key question is whether there will be exemptions for USMCA-compliant products," reports The Guardian, quoting Capital Economics.
- "Kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and other similar products will get a 50% tariff ... A 30% tariff will be imposed on upholstered
furniture," according to The Wall Street Journal.
It's unclear how markets will respond to these announcements. But stock markets generally dislike tariffs, and that can drive demand for bonds. Higher bond prices mean lower bond yields — and lower mortgage rates. Fingers crossed.
Strong economic data
All three of yesterday's economic reports came in stronger than expected, causing mortgage rates to edge up slightly. In particular, the final reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the second quarter showed 3.8% growth, way up from the 3.3% markets were expecting.
Future Fed rate cuts in doubt
Yesterday afternoon, MarketWatch carried a story, Wall Street is starting to rethink the need for multiple rate cuts into 2026. "The U.S. economy is looking stronger than many people previously thought, prompting a reconsideration by traders of how low interest rates might need to go into next year," it said.
That's not good for mortgage rates, which tend to rise when the economy is doing well, but fall when it's struggling. The CME FedWatch tool confirms that investors are indeed revisiting the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates again at the two remaining 2025 rate-setting meetings.
Government shutdown imminent
The federal government is due to shut down at midnight next Tuesday, Sep 30, unless legislators on Capitol Hill can reach a compromise. The government is now threatening mass firings of civil servants if a deal isn't agreed before then.
Shutdowns don't typically do the economy any favors, so one next week might at least partially counteract strong economic data and help mortgage rates stay lower than otherwise.
Mortgage rates today
Today is dominated by inflation data, with all eyes on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In many investors' views, this is less sexy than the consumer price index (CPI), which comes out weeks earlier.
However, PCE figures are more accurate than those of the CPI, which makes it the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. So, paying attention today is a good idea.
Scroll down to see what markets are expecting from the report and how any variations from those expectations might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.03% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.5% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.7% | 6.91% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.79% | 6.81% | +0.03% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.39% | +0.1% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.52% | +0.06% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.49% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +0.04% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from today's PCE report :
"Personal incomes are forecast to have risen moderately in August, and spending likely jumped on the back of stronger purchases of goods. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will probably show annual inflation edging higher."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But almost all the attention is likely to be focused on the PCE price index.
All price indices come with four headline figures. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (August). And the other two are year-over-year (YoY) numbers, tracking changes between July 31, 2024, and August 31, 2025.
One for each period measures the unvarnished PCE index, which includes all items in the survey. The other measures the "core" PCE index, which is the same data after food and energy costs are excluded. Those prices tend to be especially volatile, and stripping them out exposes the underlying inflation rate.
Here are those four figures for this morning's report:
- August PCE price index – Markets expect a 0.3% increase, up from July's 0.2%
- YOY PCE price index – Markets expect a 2.7% annual increase, up from July's 2.6%
- August core PCE price index – Markets expect a 0.2% increase, down from July's 0.3%
- YOY core PCE price index – Markets expect a 2.9% annual increase, unchanged from July
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
Note that sometimes market analysts uncover significant information in the detailed data that support those headline figures. When that happens, markets' initial reactions can often change as the day progresses.
Also, this morning, we're due the final consumer sentiment reading for September. This can influence mortgage rates, but may today be overshadowed by the PCE inflation report. Markets expect it to come in at 55.4, unchanged from its earlier reading.
Next week starts slowly for economic data but crescendoes to the September jobs report on Friday. That could be a real humdinger for mortgage rates — for better or for worse.
