The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.41% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.45%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.7%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.79%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
So far, it's been a relatively uneventful week for mortgage rates. Last night, the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage closed at 6.37%, according to ICanBuy, only a little higher than last Friday's 6.32%. That difference over three business days is not nothing, but it's small potatoes compared to variations on many single days.
In some ways, that's surprising because these tiny changes have been occurring at the same time that a debate has been raging on Wall Street and within the Federal Reserve. That concerns the speed at which the Fed is likely to cut general interest rates over the rest of this year and into 2026. In his Dealbook e-newsletter yesterday, New York Times writer Andrew Ross Sorkin took up the story:
"The Fed faces a 'challenging situation,' Jay Powell, its chair, said yesterday [Tuesday], after it lowered the benchmark lending rate last week by a quarter point. Cutting interest rates to bolster the labor market could reignite inflation if done too quickly. But holding rates steady could drive employers to hold back on hiring. 'Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path,' he added.
"His comments prompted a stock sell-off as some investors began to question whether the Fed would lower borrowing costs significantly this year and next ... (Potentially aggravating things, Powell characterized equities as 'fairly highly valued.')"
There is a danger when investors' expectations for general interest rates stray too far from the Fed's. When Wall Street realizes that it's too optimistic, its adjustment toward greater realism can push mortgage rates higher. Of course, it's always possible that it's the Fed that will change its position if incoming economic data force it to do so.Mortgage rates today
This morning's economic reports feature some heavyweight ones, including the final reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the second quarter and August's durable goods orders. But these tend to influence mortgage rates less than they sound as if they should.Typically, they move those rates far only when they deliver shocking figures. Scroll on down to discover what markets are expecting.
Certainly, tomorrow's inflation report is much more likely to affect mortgage rates than today's publications.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.03% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.5% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.7% | 6.91% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.79% | 6.81% | +0.03% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.39% | +0.1% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.52% | +0.06% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.49% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +0.04% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from this week's economic reports:
"Real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 will probably be revised higher in the third estimate on upward revisions to consumer spending. Personal incomes are forecast to have risen moderately in August, and spending likely jumped on the back of stronger purchases of goods. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will probably show annual inflation edging higher. Lower mortgage rates and ample supply probably pushed existing and new home sales higher. S&P Global’s preliminary PMI releases will likely show continued expansion of the private sector in September."
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But these are the three most likely to affect mortgage rates (though we doubt they'll move them far):
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 20 – Markets expect 235,000 fresh claims compared with 231,000 the previous week
- Second quarter GDP (final estimate) — Markets expect 3.3% growth, unchanged from the second estimate
- August durable goods orders — Markets expect a -0.4% contraction in orders, better than July's -2.8% contraction
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged. However, initial jobless claims work in the opposite way: the higher they are, the better for mortgage rates.
Stand by for tomorrow's inflation report. That's likely to be the most consequential of the week.
