The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.36% yesterday, an increase of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.43%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.67% yesterday, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.73%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
An article on MarketWatch yesterday said, "Enthusiasm around lower rates helped fuel 'euphoria' in the bond market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut in nine months last week, according to strategists at BofA [Bank of America] Global." And it warned that euphoria might be misplaced.
Analysts highlighted that mortgage rates today aren't high by historical standards, said the article. And lowering them would be unlikely to solve the housing crisis, which is mostly caused by the existence of too few homes to meet demand.
Right now, the Fed owns nearly $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), which are a type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates. It has declared its intention to very gradually sell those off or keep the money when they expire (they reach the end of their term or homeowners move or refinance early) until it owns none. It has already reduced its holdings of these bonds by nearly $300 billion since the peak in 2022.
It originally bought the MBSs in order to artificially lower mortgage rates. And selling them increases those rates.
Naturally, some would like to see the Fed stop those sales or even buy new MBSs when existing ones expire.
But Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle, U.S. economists at Mizuho Securities, doubt that will happen. Citing a client note written by them, MarketWatch said, " ... members of the U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC], which sets rates and manages other forms of monetary policy, have fresh memories of the subprime-mortgage boom and bust nearly two decades ago.
"'As such, it would be surprising if the [FOMC] were to use its quantitative tools to artificially depress long-term rates to try to
jump-start housing,' the Mizuho team wrote. 'Moreover, the home-affordability problem is more a home-price issue than a
mortgage-rate issue.'"
In other words, it might be a mistake for investors, homeowners and wannabe home buyers to rely on the Fed to drive down mortgage rates further.
Mortgage rates today
Yesterday, we suggested that day's mortgage rates were unlikely to move far. We were right, and we suspect the same might be the case today.
There's nothing scheduled that's likely to affect them much. However, having said that, nobody can be certain of anything when it comes to future mortgage rates.
It's always possible that some White House announcement, economic revelation or geopolitical event could roil markets. And then all bets are off.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.39% | +0.04% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.47% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.88% | +0.04% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.9% | +0.03% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.75% | +0.01% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.36% | 6.39% | -0.01% | -0.19% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.04% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | +0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0.05% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | +0.04% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.38% | 6.4% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from this week's economic reports:
"Real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 will probably be revised higher in the third estimate on upward revisions to consumer spending. Personal incomes are forecast to have risen moderately in August, and spending likely jumped on the back of stronger purchases of goods. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will probably show annual inflation edging higher. Lower mortgage rates and ample supply probably pushed existing and new home sales higher. S&P Global’s preliminary PMI releases will likely show continued expansion of the private sector in September."
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- August new home sales – Markets expect a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 650,000 new homes sold that month, slightly fewer than the 652,000 sold in July
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged. However, we can't remember the last time a report of new home sales had an appreciable impact on mortgage rates.
