The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.41%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.63% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
The Federal Reserve cut general interest rates last week because it feared a rapidly weakening labor market more than hotter-than-comfortable inflation. So, it could cut less in the future than currently planned if employment becomes less of a problem or inflation more of one.
Some red flags have been raised about inflation trends by Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist. Yesterday, he wrote, "Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, and services inflation is no longer declining. At the same time, 72% of the CPI [consumer price index] components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The bottom line is that inflation is still not under control ... "
On Sunday, Sløk published a graph that showed tariff revenues soaring over the last four or five months, from under $100 billion to roughly $350 billion. The graph might explain why tariffs have so far had only a limited impact on consumer prices. Their costs have shot up over a limited period, and their effects are likely to take some time yet to feed through to consumers.
Of course, we can't yet be sure how much tariffs will ultimately affect consumer prices, with some economists suggesting they'll barely have any impact at all. But, if they do make inflation appreciably warmer, as most economists expect, that would be very likely to push mortgage rates higher again.
That would be the case regardless of the Fed's response. Mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). And investors won't buy those (or other) bonds at today's yields if they believe inflation will eat up most or all of their profit.
Mortgage rates today
Mortgage rates held steady yesterday. And we shouldn't be surprised if they prove similarly inert today.
Yes, a couple of scheduled events have the potential to move mortgage rates. But there are good grounds for thinking they won't.
The first is the publication of a couple of purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) by S&P Global this morning. PMIs measure activity in organizations' procurement departments, so they can be helpful guides to future economic activity. However, those from S&P tend to be less influential in markets than those from the Institute for Supply Management. So, they'd have to deliver some shocking data to have even a moderate impact.
The other event on today's calendar is a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Normally, we tell you that markets listen to Powell's every word, and that he can send bond yields soaring or tumbling with a raise of his eyebrow.
However, Powell spoke at length less than a week ago when he hosted a news conference. How likely is it that he'll say anything fresh today?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.41% | 5.46% | +0.04% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.01% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.74% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.4% | +0.09% | -0.18% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.38% | 6.4% | -0.03% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0.05% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | +0.01% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.01% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.38% | 6.41% | +0.01% | -0.25% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from this week's economic reports:
"Real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 will probably be revised higher in the third estimate on upward revisions to consumer spending. Personal incomes are forecast to have risen moderately in August, and spending likely jumped on the back of stronger purchases of goods. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will probably show annual inflation edging higher. Lower mortgage rates and ample supply probably pushed existing and new home sales higher. S&P Global’s preliminary PMI releases will likely show continued expansion of the private sector in September."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Preliminary September PMI for the services sector from S&P Global — Markets expect 53.8, down from August's 54.5
- Preliminary September PMI for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — Markets expect 51.5, down from August's 53.0
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged. Today's reports rarely cause sharp movements, but we'd rather they were closer to market expectations than Comerica Bank's forecast.
Don't forget the Fed chair's speech at 12:35 p.m. Eastern. He probably won't say anything new, but you can never be sure.
