The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.37%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.62% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.73%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
The second half of last week was unkind to mortgage rates. They rose sharply following the Federal Reserve's events on Wednesday.
However, don't be too despondent. They remain much lower than they were for much of the summer.
We explained last week that markets were unsure of what would happen to general interest rates in the future following the publication of the Fed's economic and rate projections. That was mostly because the Fed itself was doubtful, and opinion among its policymakers was divided.
On Friday, stock markets shrugged and went with sunny optimism, ending the day with many record highs.
But bond markets are famously more conservative, and bond yields rose. Mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS), and rising MBS yields took mortgage rates with them as they climbed.
This week
Senior Fed officials are out in force this week, with five having speaking engagements just today, and nine more public appearances over the following days. Some will likely be reinforcing the points made last week, while others may put their own spin on what happened.
The one who can usually make the most waves is Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And he's due to speak tomorrow. However, you may wonder if he's likely to say anything different from his remarks at his news conference last Wednesday.
The week starts slowly for economic reports with none due today, and relatively minor ones through Thursday. A couple might move mortgage rates if they deliver shocks, but we're not expecting them to do so.
Friday is different. That day brings an inflation report, a topic that obsesses markets at the moment.
The personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) price index usually gets less coverage than the flashier consumer price index (CPI), but it's actually the more accurate. And it's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. So, we should take it seriously.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.75% | +0% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.28% | 6.32% | +0% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | +0% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.79% | +0% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.4% | +0% | -0.26% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There's nothing on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And, without any economic reports to influence them, mortgage rates will likely move in line with market sentiment.
