The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.32% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.62%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.73%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Regular readers won't be surprised that mortgage rates rose following Wednesday afternoon's Federal Reserve events. We presented it as a real possibility that morning.
According to ICanBuy, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage closed at 6.27% yesterday evening, compared with 6.15% 48 hours earlier. Mortgage News Daily puts yesterday's close even higher, at 6.37%, which it says is a two-week high.
Unfortunately, mainstream media don't track mortgage rates each day. Instead, they report Freddie Mac's weekly average, which is a very different animal.
Yesterday, Freddie said, "Mortgage rates decreased yet again this week," which was true, averaged out across the whole seven days. But it was wildly misleading for those interested in mortgage rates today. So, don't believe falling-mortgage-rates headlines; they're out of date.
Why are mortgage rates suddenly rising?
We answered this yesterday, but it bears repeating in summary. Although the Fed cut general interest rates on Wednesday, its forward guidance on future cuts was much shakier than markets expected.
"It’s not incredibly obvious what to do," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told journalists that afternoon. Markets had been hoping for much more certainty in the Fed's predictions.
Yes, most of the rate-setting committee's members thought there would likely be two more quarter-point cuts this year. But the split was very close to even: 10 to 9. The nine wanted either zero or one more 2025 cut. A single changed mind could see hawks in the majority at the next meeting.
Markets had already priced in two much more certain cuts plus several more in 2026. Mortgage rates have been rising as investors recalculated the odds.
On Wednesday, Comerica Bank penned an excellent overview of the Fed's predicament:
"The Fed is in a pickle, with inflation pulling them one way and a softening job market pulling the other. Ordinarily, the Fed reins in
plans to cut rates when the economy looks like it will run hotter than they have been expecting, especially if inflation is above their target
and rising like it is today. They are doing the opposite now because recent jobs data show the labor market has weakened considerably in
2025. The Preliminary Benchmark Revision to payroll employment lowered average monthly job growth in the year to date to 44,000 from 75,000 previously; payrolls have averaged just a 29,000 monthly increase in the last three months. The unemployment rate has edged up a tenth of a percent over the last year, but would have increased more if not for weak growth of the population and labor force. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that population growth slowed from 0.9% in 2024 to 0.2% in 2025. The job market has lost momentum, and the Fed wants to reverse that trend before it gets worse."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0.04% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | +0.06% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.84% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.1% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0.18% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.75% | +0.04% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.28% | 6.32% | -0.1% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0.03% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | +0.04% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.79% | +0.05% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.11% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.4% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There's nothing on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And, without any economic reports to influence them, mortgage rates will likely move in line with market sentiment. Let's hope they've cheered up after a bad couple of days.
