The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.28% today, an increase of 0.12% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.3%, up by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.57%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.69%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
What happened to mortgage rates following yesterday's Federal Reserve events? It depends on who you ask.
Our preferred source, ICanBuy, reckons they were effectively unchanged. But Mortgage News Daily shows a moderate rise.
Markets weren't sure what to make of the day's events. "Markets didn’t know which way to go after Wednesday’s Fed rate cut. Expect more volatility ahead," said a MarketWatch headline.
Markets got their rate cut. And a majority of the Fed rate-setting committee's members indicated they expected two more cuts this year.
But, at his news conference on Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called that day's cut a "risk-management" maneuver, and stressed that future cuts would depend on future economic data. "There are no risk-free paths now. It’s not incredibly obvious what to do," he said.
As worryingly, while 10 of the 19 rate-setting committee members said they expected two more rate cuts this year, seven thought there would be none, and two thought a single cut was more likely. With such a small majority, it wouldn't take much to swing decisions on Oct. 29 and Dec. 10.
What does all this mean for mortgage rates? It probably makes them more vulnerable to incoming data, especially those concerning employment and inflation. Figures that show the labor market weakening further could help those rates fall. But signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched might push them higher.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | +0.12% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.3% | 5.35% | +0.11% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | +0.09% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.77% | +0.06% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.67% | +0.06% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.71% | +0.03% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.38% | 6.41% | +0.08% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.38% | 6.4% | +0.09% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.31% | 5.35% | +0.1% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.74% | +0.08% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.05% | -0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0.04% | -0.25% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar shows three economic reports scheduled for release today:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 13 — Markets expect 240,000, down from the previous week's 263,000
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for September — Markets expect a 2.0 reading, well up from August's -0.3
- August leading economic indicators — Markets expect -0.2%, slightly worse than July's -0.1%
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
However, today's reports rarely affect mortgage rates. And none is scheduled for tomorrow, meaning movements in mortgage rates will be driven by things other than economic data.
