The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.18% yesterday, a decrease of 0.07% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.19%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.54% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.63%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Retail sales data often have a modest or moderate effect on mortgage rates. But, absent a shock, the one due this morning may have less of an impact than most.
That's because Wall Street is currently obsessed with employment and inflation, and may have little time for other types of reports.
Also, this morning, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to begin a two-day meeting of its rate-setting committee. That's formally called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Markets remain convinced that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut to general interest rates when it announces its decision tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern, and we agree. Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds for such a cut at 95.8%. We'll brief you more fully on that tomorrow morning.
Other reports today
It's an unusually heavy day for economic reports, even leaving aside August's retail sales. A couple of them (business inventories and the home builder confidence index) are highly unlikely to affect mortgage rates perceptibly.
The August import price index (IPI) is an inflation report. However, it's the least important of these, and is unlikely to have much effect unless it suggests a wave of higher prices is on its way. We're not expecting that.
Finally, we're due industrial production data for August. Once upon a time, this was highly influential, but America's shrunken manufacturing base means it often passes by unnoticed.
Scroll on down for what markets are expecting from today's more important reports, along with likely outcomes if those expectations are exceeded or if the data fall short of them.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.18% | 6.21% | -0.07% | -0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.19% | 5.24% | -0.06% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.54% | 6.75% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.57% | 5.72% | -0.09% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.46% | 5.6% | -0.08% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | -0.02% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.34% | 6.37% | -0.02% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.29% | 6.32% | -0.06% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.2% | 5.24% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.51% | 6.72% | +0.01% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.6% | 5.74% | -0.07% | -0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.34% | 6.37% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what economists from Comerica Bank are expecting from this week's reports:
"Comerica forecasts for the FOMC to cut the fed funds target rate by a quarter percent to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% at its next decision
Wednesday. The Fed will publish an updated Dot Plot, with their forecasts of growth, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the most
appropriate course for rates. If Chair Powell repeats the cautious guidance from his speech at Jackson Hole in August, markets could
abruptly reprice their aggressive pre-meeting rate cut expectations. Retail sales probably grew slower in August on lower vehicle sales after a robust increase in July. Core retail sales, which exclude sales at dealerships and gasoline stations, are expected to rise solidly. Housing
starts probably eased in August following sharp increases in July, while issuance of building permits likely picked up after a big decline
in July. Industrial production likely held steady in August, as mining (especially oil and gas extraction) and utilities output weighed on the
index."
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar shows three important economic reports scheduled for release today:
- August retail sales — Markets expect a 0.3% rise, a slower one than July's 0.5%
- August import price index — Markets expect these prices to fall by -0.2%, compared with July's 0.4% rise
- August industrial production — Markets expect this to shrink by -0.1%, just as it did in July
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged. However, inflation reports work the other way: the lower the reported figure, the better.
