Mortgage Rates Today, September 15, 2025: A Potentially Crucial Week for Rates

The bigger picture

A quarter-point cut to general interest rates from the Federal Reserve is close to inevitable on Wednesday. Over the weekend, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of one at 96.4%, while a half-point one has a much slimmer chance at 3.6%. Nobody thinks they're staying put.

Markets have already priced in the smaller cut, so mortgage rates shouldn't respond to a rate announcement that day unless the Fed delivers a shock. However, they could react to the Fed's summary of economic projections, which it's scheduled to release at 2 p.m. Eastern that afternoon.

Each of these summaries contains one of the Fed's famous "dot plots." Britannica says, "The Fed dot plot is a chart that shows you where each FOMC [the Fed's rate-setting committee] member thinks interest rates will be by the end of the current year, two or three (depending on the time of year) consecutive years after, and the more ambiguous 'longer run.' Each 'dot' represents a member’s individual view."

Understandably, dot plots can powerfully influence markets and mortgage rates. Investors are being told what the people who set interest rates think will happen to interest rates in the future. And you don't get much more straight-from-the-horse's-mouth than that.

10-year Treasury yields

The Fed changes the federal funds rate, to which interest rates on most variable-rate borrowing are tied. But, for new fixed-rate mortgages, rates are associated even more closely with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes.

On Friday, MarketWatch interviewed J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Phil Camporeale, a portfolio manager: "A lower federal-funds rate should create a bit more 'breathing room' for the labor market ... but for the extension of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle to be 'accommodative' to the U.S. economy, the 10-year Treasury yield would need to stay around its current trading level.

"The 10-year Treasury note, whose roughly 4% yield [4.070% at Friday's close] suggests investors believe inflation expectations will remain 'anchored,' is important to watch, as it drives mortgage rates and other borrowing costs for consumers and companies in the U.S., according to Camporeale."

Those yields (and mortgage rates) often shadow Fed rate cuts, though they move in anticipation of those cuts rather than in response to them. And you can see that both have moved lower over the last month or so as the chances of a Fed cut have improved. As we suggested last week, whether that's a case of correlation or causation is pretty academic.

However, if inflation data become sharply warmer in the coming months, those yields and mortgage rates are likely to rise. So, too, will the chances of the Fed either reducing the number of future cuts or even implementing a hike.

"The central bank only controls short-term interest rates, but longer-term bond yields can move on shifting expectations for future rate cuts," said Barron's last week. The good news was contained elsewhere in its report: "Mortgage rates dropped the most in a year this past week, and the decline could push more buyers to purchase a home — if the lower rate holds."

Cook at Fed meeting?

The government is currently in court seeking to exclude Fed Governor Lisa Cook from participating in Wednesday's meeting. It alleges that Cook misled lenders about her purchase of homes in Atlanta and Ann Arbor, Michigan, by declaring both as her principal residence, which could constitute fraud. Cook denies the claims.

Cook is seen as hawkish on general interest rates, and the government hopes that her replacement by one of its own appointees will increase the chances of larger and faster cuts.

However, on Saturday, Reuters reported: "A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Lisa Cook, the Federal Reserve governor accused of mortgage fraud ... shows that Cook had declared the property as a 'vacation home,' according to a document reviewed by Reuters."

Other things this week

While the Fed's dot plot probably has the greatest potential to move mortgage rates this week, tomorrow's retail sales data for August could also drive a change.

Meanwhile, time is running out for legislators to avert a government shutdown. If an agreement isn't reached before the end of the month, huge parts of the federal government will grind to a halt. Markets aren't in a panic yet, but they will be watching how negotiations progress, and could respond to emerging news.

What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

Mortgage rates today

The MarketWatch economic calendar shows only a single economic report scheduled for release today.

That's September's Empire State manufacturing survey. Markets expect it to fall to 4.5 from August's 11.9.

A higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged. However, these surveys rarely affect mortgage rates.