The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.21% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.2%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.53%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.57%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved yesterday despite a better-than-expected producer price index (PPI). Investors might have decided to postpone popping the Champagne corks until today's much more important consumer price index (CPI) is published. Read on for markets' expectations for this morning's report.
If that, too, comes in below expectations, markets and mortgage rates could have a good day. The lower this morning's actual figures, the better for both.
Looming Fed meeting
That's partly because a good CPI would virtually guarantee that the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates when it meets next Wednesday. That should reduce borrowing costs on all variable-rate borrowing, including credit cards, overdrafts, and many auto loans, personal loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
Things are different for mortgages. Investors price into mortgage rates an expected Fed rate cut well before an announcement is made. So, mortgage rates tend to move on the day only if the Fed surprises markets.
That's rare, but it could happen next Wednesday if the Fed cuts general interest rates by a half point rather than the quarter point currently expected. Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool put the chances of the smaller cut at 92% and the half-point one at 8%.
We'll see later today whether the CPI changes those odds.
Does the Fed influence mortgage rates?
Some suggest that the Fed influences rates on short-term loans much more than those on long-term ones, including mortgages. They may be right.
It's certainly hard to differentiate between mortgage rates moving in anticipation of a Fed cut or hike and their responding to the same economic stimuli that the Fed reacts to.
However, we would argue that it doesn't really matter. Mortgage rates almost always shift in the same direction as expectations of imminent rate changes by the Fed. Whether that's down to causation or correlation is immaterial.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | -0.05% | -0.35% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.2% | 5.25% | -0.04% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.75% | +-0% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.77% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.68% | +0.01% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.57% | 6.59% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.3% | -0.01% | -0.33% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.3% | 6.33% | -0.05% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.21% | 5.25% | -0.05% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.7% | +-0% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.78% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.28% | 6.3% | +-0% | -0.33% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for this week's inflation reports:
"CPI and PPI inflation will likely diverge again in their August releases as lower diesel prices hold down the year-over-year increase of the
PPI. The core CPI and PPI indexes are forecast to run hot again and pick up in year-over-year terms on tariff passthrough. Shelter inflation
will likely run cool in the CPI report, offsetting some of the inflationary pressure from tariffs."
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar shows three economic reports due today. However, only the CPI is likely to matter. It and the jobs report are rivals for the title of most important report, and virtually always overshadow other data published on the same day.
Price indices come in two flavors. The vanilla one (CPI) measures price changes across all items in the survey, while the "core" CPI is the same after food and energy prices are excluded.
There are two figures for each flavor. One covers the reporting month (August) and the other is a year-over-year (YOY) figure (Sep 1, 2024, to Aug. 31, 2025).
Here are what markets are expecting for those four headline figures:
- August CPI — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, a little warmer than July's 0.2%
- August core CPI — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, unchanged since July
- YOY CPI — Markets expect a 2.9% increase, warmer than July's 2.7%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect a 3.1% increase, unchanged since July
Those headline figures appear above a mass of detailed data. Sometimes, markets may have a knee-jerk response to the former and then change their minds as they dig into the latter.
With inflation reports, higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave them virtually unchanged.
