The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.26% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.25%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.53%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.58%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's Preliminary Benchmark Revision’s release showed new jobs added to payrolls were nearly half the previously reported number. Markets had been expecting a huge drop of 775,000 jobs compared with earlier data, but the actual figure was 911,000.
Yesterday, we quoted Comerica Bank's analysis of the revision, published Monday: "If the revision is as negative as forecast, it will show the economy had less momentum entering 2025 than previously believed. This would have less implications for monetary policy than the weaker-than-expected August jobs report published last week. Even so, a weak Benchmark Revision would add pressure for the Fed to cut at the next decision on September 17."
Recessions and mortgage rates
Clearly, employment data are nothing like as strong as previously thought. And that's likely to cause speculation about a slowdown or recession. Indeed, on Monday, The Financial Times bluntly posed the question, "Is America Already in Recession?"
Recessions tend to be good for mortgage rates, sending them significantly lower. That's why those rates dropped sharply last Friday following that day's very poor jobs report for August.
Inflation and mortgage rates
However, inflation is kryptonite to mortgage rates, almost inevitably driving them higher. That's why today's and tomorrow's inflation reports are so critical to all of us who want lower rates.
Today's report is the producer price index (PPI), which measures price changes in the wholesale phase of the supply chain: between ports and factory gates and retailers' delivery bays.
Tomorrow's is the consumer price index (CPI). That tracks the prices we consumers pay at online and brick-and-mortar checkouts, both in stores for goods and in restaurants, bars, theaters and other service delivery points.
The CPI is almost always much more consequential for mortgage rates than the PPI. However, today's report has the potential to make a real difference, depending on what it says.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | +0.01% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.3% | +0.08% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.75% | +0.01% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.78% | +0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.53% | 5.67% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.58% | 6.6% | +0.02% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.27% | 6.31% | +0.01% | -0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.38% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | +0.08% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.71% | +0.01% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.02% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.28% | 6.3% | +0.03% | -0.32% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for this week's inflation reports:
"CPI and PPI inflation will likely diverge again in their August releases as lower diesel prices hold down the year-over-year increase of the
PPI. The core CPI and PPI indexes are forecast to run hot again and pick up in year-over-year terms on tariff passthrough. Shelter inflation
will likely run cool in the CPI report, offsetting some of the inflationary pressure from tariffs."
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar shows two reports due today. July's wholesale inventories are exceedingly unlikely to affect mortgage rates. But August's PPI may well.
Price indices come in two flavors. The vanilla one (PPI) measures price changes across all items in the survey, while the "core" PPI is the same after food and energy prices are excluded.
Unlike for the CPI, MarketWatch doesn't provide forecasts of year-over-year figures for PPIs. So, here are market expectations only for the month of August:
- August PPI — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, way cooler than July's 0.9%
- August core PPI — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, considerably cooler than July's 0.6%
With inflation reports, higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave them virtually unchanged.
