The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.25% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.18%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.52%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.57%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
"Payroll employment is forecast to be revised down by 775,000 in the Preliminary Benchmark Revision’s release on Tuesday," wrote Comerica Bank yesterday. "This release revises the level of employment in March 2025 using unemployment insurance records covering approximately 11,000,000 workplaces—considerably more detail than is available to the government’s statisticians when they publish the monthly jobs report, which is based on survey responses from about 50,000 workplaces. If the revision is as negative as forecast, it will show the economy had less momentum entering 2025 than previously believed. This would have less implications for monetary policy than the weaker-than-expected August jobs report published last week. Even so, a weak Benchmark Revision would add pressure for the Fed to cut at the next decision September 17."
So, this annual update is unlikely to have major implications for markets and mortgage rates unless it's wildly better or worse than expected. Still, it's worth watching out for.
But what is it? "Each year, the BLS aligns the level of employment as reported by the Current Establishment Survey (CES) to more comprehensive data from administrative sources (such as unemployment insurance systems) to address response and sampling errors in
the survey," explains Wells Fargo. "The CES estimated count of nonfarm payrolls in March of each year is revised to correspond with the actual employment count in that month, leaving the benchmark period to cover the 12 months through March of each year."
More likely to have an appreciable effect on mortgage rates are this week's inflation data, due tomorrow and Thursday. We'll brief you more fully on both those on the morning of its publication.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.28% | +0.01% | -0.32% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.18% | 5.23% | +0.02% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.74% | +0.01% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.76% | -0.03% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.67% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.57% | 6.59% | +0.04% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.3% | +0% | -0.25% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.37% | +0.03% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.19% | 5.23% | +0.02% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | +0.01% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.76% | -0.04% | -0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.24% | 6.27% | -0.1% | -0.31% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's expectations for this week's inflation reports:
"CPI and PPI inflation will likely diverge again in their August releases as lower diesel prices hold down the year-over-year increase of the
PPI. The core CPI and PPI indexes are forecast to run hot again and pick up in year-over-year terms on tariff passthrough. Shelter inflation
will likely run cool in the CPI report, offsetting some of the inflationary pressure from tariffs."
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar doesn't include the payroll revision (above) and again lists just one report due today. And, just like yesterday's, this report rarely has a noticeable impact on mortgage rates.
It's the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB's) small business optimism index for August. And markets expect it to inch higher: to 100.7 from July's 100.3.
Better-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones usually drag them lower. As-forecast figures may leave them virtually unchanged.
