The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.24% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.16%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.51%, having dropped by 0.1. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.53%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Friday's horrible jobs report threw mortgage rates off a cliff. One result is that 3 million homeowners could now save serious money by refinancing to a lower rate, even after taking closing costs into account.
"Estimated monthly savings were as high as $346 per month for those who purchased their homes around November 2023," we reported, hours after the employment data dropped. Others may save less but still make very worthwhile cuts to their monthly payments, more than enough to justify the accompanying closing costs.
We sourced our 3 million homeowners figure from the August Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Mortgage Monitor. That's the number it calculated would benefit if average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to 6.375%.
It went on to say, "If 30-year rates fall to 6.125%, some 4.8M mortgage holders would be in the money for a refinance." We're not there yet.
Mortgage News Daily reckons that the average was 6.29% on Friday evening, while ICanBuy put the same number at 6.30%. Clearly, a 6.125% average very soon is well within the realms of possibility.
This week's inflation reports
Whether mortgage rates rise or continue to fall this week will probably be determined mainly by this week's inflation reports. If these show the rate of price rises accelerating more quickly than expected, that could push mortgage rates higher again. Conversely, pleasant surprises would likely drag them even lower.
The first of this week's reports is due on Wednesday, and is the producer price index (PPI). This measures price changes in the wholesale phase of the supply chain: from factory gates, through warehouses, to retailers' delivery bays.
Thursday brings the more famous and influential consumer price index (CPI). Markets are currently expecting small increases in the CPI figures, which is fine. Those expectations are already priced into mortgage rates, so the data wouldn't normally affect those rates if it's as forecast.
As a general rule, figures that are better for the economy than those forecast send mortgage rates higher. Worse-than-expected numbers tend to push them down. But inflation data are different. Low inflation is good for both the economy and mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.24% | 6.27% | -0.06% | -0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.16% | 5.21% | -0.07% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.51% | 6.73% | -0.1% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.79% | -0.05% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.68% | -0.1% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.53% | 6.55% | -0.05% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.3% | -0.04% | -0.25% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.07% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.16% | 5.21% | -0.05% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.47% | 6.68% | -0.11% | -0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.8% | -0.05% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0.08% | -0.21% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
The MarketWatch economic calendar lists just one report due today. That's for consumer credit in July, which is forecast to rise sharply: to $15 billion from $7.4 billion in June. This report rarely has a noticeable impact on mortgage rates.
Remember, better-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones usually drag them lower. As-forecast figures may leave them virtually unchanged.
