The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.46% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.79%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.66%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates nudged up yesterday for the first time in a week. How come?
The most likely reason was provided by Barron's yesterday afternoon under the headline, Global Bond Rout Deepens on Worries Over Debt—and Tariffs. "The world’s biggest government-bond markets are undergoing another selloff as investors get increasingly sensitive about rising levels of debt and as the outlook for tariffs in the U.S. becomes even less clear," said the article.
This isn't a purely U.S. issue. Government debt has recently become the most expensive for more than a decade in the U.K., Japan, France, Germany and the Netherlands. But the cost of American debt rose today, too.
What does this have to do with mortgage rates? Well, those rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond (the mortgage-backed security) that tends to shadow 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. When yields on those increase, as they did today, mortgage rates tend to follow.
A packed September
On Monday, The Wall Street Journal listed the many September deadlines the president faced as he returned from the Labor Day weekend. Some of those could affect mortgage rates.
Government shutdown
Top of the list is avoiding a government shutdown at the end of this month. "A shutdown would result in the pause of pay for hundreds of thousands of government employees and delays in the services they perform, as only employees deemed essential are instructed to come to work," explains the Journal.
To avoid a shutdown, Republicans will likely need support from some Democratic legislators. One Republican strategist predicted, "A shutdown is more likely this year than a spending deal."
Shutdowns typically damage the economy, which might help mortgage rates fall. But one might also delay the processing of government-backed loans.
Tariffs
"A federal appeals court struck down most of President Trump's Congress-averting global import tariffs Friday in a dispute that's predicted to head to the US Supreme Court," reports Yahoo! Finance.
However, the implementation of the ruling is delayed until next month, and markets may wait for a final decision before reacting strongly. It's currently unclear when the Supreme Court will take up the case.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.49% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | -0.02% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 7% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.86% | 6.01% | +0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.9% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.66% | 6.68% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.41% | 6.45% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.54% | 6.57% | +-0% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.41% | 5.45% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.75% | 6.96% | +-0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.88% | 6.02% | +0% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.54% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs, Fed independence and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's roundup of the week ahead:
"In a holiday-shortened week packed with data releases, the most attention will go to the August jobs report. It is expected to show modest growth of payroll employment, a little above the last few months’ average pace. Comerica forecasts a stable unemployment rate, slightly better than the consensus’ expectation for a slight uptick. Earnings growth is forecast to slow.
"In the week’s other releases, construction spending is forecast to contract again in July after falling in five of the first six months of 2025. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs are forecast to rise in August after July’s reports showed the private sector growing at a modest pace. August probably saw another solid month of vehicle sales as EV buyers rushed to cash in on tax credits before those programs sunset at the end of September."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar lists three economic reports scheduled for release.
The job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) may be more influential than usual this month because investors are obsessed with employment data. True, this covers July rather than August, but it does lift the hood on the labor market and may reveal some important insights about how the engine's running.
Here are today's reports, alongside market expectations for today's figures and the same data from the previous reporting period:
- July JOLTS — Markets expect 7.4 million job openings, unchanged from June
- July factory orders — Markets expect a -1.3% contraction, better than June's -4.8%
- August auto sales — These will emerge throughout the day as individual manufacturers release their figures. No forecast
Better-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones usually drag them lower.
Due at 2 p.m. Eastern is the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, formally called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. The Fed explains:
"Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts,
economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector."
These don't often affect mortgage rates, but there have been times when they have.
Stay strapped in for Friday's jobs report. That's often the most influential of all monthly reports, though inflation data currently rival it.
