The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.15% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.3%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.46%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.67%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
It's as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get that the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) at 2 p.m. Eastern this afternoon.
Last night, investors who had bought Fed funds futures were backing that play with 99.5% odds, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining 0.5% thought a 50-basis-point (0.5%) cut was a possibility.
The investors who largely determine mortgage rates through their trading in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), a type of bond, know what's coming and will have traded ahead of today's announcement. In other words, a 0.25% cut is already baked into mortgage rates.
So, only if the Fed shocks markets by making no cut or a 0.5% one are mortgage rates likely to change in response to the rate announcement. And neither of those looks likely.
Fed news conference
However, that doesn't mean the Fed won't move mortgage rates this afternoon. At 2:30 p.m. Eastern, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to host a news conference. And his words could easily push mortgage rates sharply higher or lower.
Wall Street will be looking out for hints from Powell concerning two main topics:
- How likely the Fed is to stick to the rate-cutting timetable it set out last month. The more and the sooner future cuts to general interest rates are made compared to current expectations, the lower mortgage rates might fall.
- Whether and when the Fed will stop selling its stockpile of MBSs as part of its quantitative tightening program. Its sales are keeping mortgage rates higher than they'd otherwise be, so early plans to cease them could help those rates move immediately lower.
This afternoon's rate announcement and news conference are of global importance and should be covered extensively by media around the world. So, you should be able to follow what happens, almost in real time.
Trade talks with China
"US and Chinese officials have reached a framework agreement, averting a potentially ruinous 157% tariff on Chinese goods while paving the way for a potential trade deal to be discussed between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week," reported CNN Business on Monday.
A finalized trade deal, assuming one emerges, will likely push both stock indices and mortgage rates higher. So, watch out for progress reports ahead of the presidents' summit.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.18% | +0% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.3% | 5.35% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | -0.02% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.68% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.22% | 6.25% | -0.02% | -0.18% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.27% | 5.32% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.42% | 6.64% | -0.01% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.8% | +0% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.19% | 6.22% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there has been only one exception: The delayed September consumer price index was published on Oct. 24. Nothing else is expected to be released before the shutdown ends.
Here's what the economics team at Comerica Bank is expecting from this week's economic events and data:
"The Fed will ease the federal funds target rate by a quarter percent to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at their meeting Wednesday, after last Friday’s release of the September Consumer Price Index report (CPI) contained little to dissuade them from a cut. Pending home sales likely rose slower in September following August’s large increase. Consumer confidence probably changed little in October, while households’ inflation expectations are anticipated to have remained elevated."
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's September's pending home sales data, published by the National Association of Realtors®, and is due at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Markets expect those sales to have slowed considerably, rising by only 1% in September compared with 4% in August.
For most reports, higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward.
However, pending home sales rarely trouble mortgage rates. And the same goes for the only other economic report due in the remaining days of this week.
That's scheduled for Friday and is the October Chicago Business Barometer, which is a type of purchasing managers' index from the Institute for Supply Management.
