The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.15% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.29%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.48%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.68%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
The consumer confidence survey is published by the independent Conference Board and is therefore unaffected by the government shutdown. So, it should appear on schedule at 10 a.m. Eastern this morning.
"The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead," says the Conference Board. "This monthly report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates."
That information is clearly of great interest to investors, especially at a time when official data are on hold until the government reopens. So, markets may well pay attention to any surprises in this morning's report. Scroll down for details of what markets are expecting from it.
Fed on course for rates cut tomorrow
Sorry to repeat our reporting yesterday about the near-certain Federal Reserve's cut to general interest rates tomorrow. But that day's Fed events are the ones most likely to affect mortgage rates this week.
Pretty much everyone expects the Federal Reserve to unveil a 0.25% (25-basis-point) cut in general interest rates at 2 p.m. Eastern tomorrow.
The CME FedWatch tool, based on investors' purchases of Fed funds futures (effectively wagers), put the chances of such a cut at 97.3% last night, down from 98.3% over the weekend and 99.4% a week ago.
Those small falls suggest a few investors may be getting jitters about what's to come, but 97.3% remains a near-unanimous expectation.
Owing to that near-certainty, a quarter-point cut is already baked into mortgage rates. So, those are unlikely to move on the announcement, assuming the Fed delivers what everybody expects.
Of course, there's always a slim chance of the central bank surprising markets. A shock no-cut announcement would likely send mortgage rates appreciably higher, while an outsize 0.5% reduction would typically push them decisively downward. But both of those look highly unlikely.
What might move mortgage rates tomorrow is a news conference that afternoon hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If he is upbeat and confirms the likelihood of a December cut, mortgage rates might fall. But, if he suggests such a cut is much less probable than investors think, those rates could rise.
Trade talks with China
Markets are optimistic that trade talks between the United States and China will go well, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, CNN Business reports, "After meeting with Chinese trade negotiators in Malaysia over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he anticipates the high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi could result in 'some kind of deferral' on rare-earth export controls."
A finalized trade deal, assuming one emerges, will likely push both stock indices and mortgage rates higher.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.18% | -0.07% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.29% | 5.34% | -0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.69% | -0.04% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.75% | -0.06% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.67% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.7% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.23% | 6.27% | -0.01% | -0.14% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | -0.06% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.28% | 5.32% | -0.02% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.43% | 6.65% | -0.04% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.8% | -0.04% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.22% | 6.25% | -0.11% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there has been only one exception: The delayed September consumer price index was published on Oct. 24. Nothing else is expected to be released before the shutdown ends.
Here's what the economics team at Comerica Bank is expecting from this week's economic events and data:
"The Fed will ease the federal funds target rate by a quarter percent to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at their meeting Wednesday, after last Friday’s release of the September Consumer Price Index report (CPI) contained little to dissuade them from a cut. Pending home sales likely rose slower in September following August’s large increase. Consumer confidence probably changed little in October, while households’ inflation expectations are anticipated to have remained elevated."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, only one, the consumer confidence index for October, typically affects mortgage rates.
Markets expect that index to inch lower to 94.0 from September's 94.2.
For most reports, higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward.
Today's other report is the August S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities. Markets have no expectations for that.
