Mortgage Rates Today, October 24, 2025: It's Inflation Day!

The bigger picture

Today's big news is the release of September's consumer price index (CPI), arguably the most influential inflation report of all. This morning's publication, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the first and likely the only official data that will be published during the government shutdown.

Investors may well pay the CPI even more attention than they normally do. The lack of official data has had them feeling their way in the dark. And, in that situation, anyone's likely to focus on a glimmer of light.

Mortgage rates only inched higher yesterday, but the yields in underlying bond markets that determine those rates climbed further. Unless the CPI contains good news (lower-than-expected inflation rates) this morning, mortgage rates might start today a little higher than they closed yesterday. Scroll on down for what markets are expecting tomorrow.

Oil prices rise

Yesterday's rise in bond yields was partly due to nervousness about this morning's CPI. But another contributory factor was the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. and European nations against two key Russian oil producers.

MarketWatch reports, "U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude saw its December contract climb by as much as 6.3% Thursday to as high as $62.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday level since Oct. 8, FactSet data show. On the ICE Futures Europe exchange, global benchmark Brent for December delivery touched $66.36, for a rise of as much as 6%."

Higher oil prices fuel inflation and are typically bad for mortgage rates.

However, it may be that this will be a short-term issue that lasts only as long as it takes Russia to rejig its supply routes. "We expect a period of short-term turbulence across oil, equities and currencies as some investors reposition," said MarketWatch, quoting a note published by Nigel Green, chief executive officer at deVere Group.

What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there is only one exception. The delayed September consumer price index is scheduled for release today.

Here is Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from economic reports this week:

"The September inflation report will probably show a sharp monthly increase in headline consumer prices and a moderate rise in core prices,
resulting in annual changes for both measures holding above 3%. Big jumps in beef and electricity prices are expected to have contributed to
the higher inflation print. S&P Global’s Flash PMIs [purchasing managers' indices] will likely show a further moderation in economic activity in both manufacturing and services sectors. Boosted by lower mortgage rates, existing home sales probably rose last month. Weighed down by the government shutdown, consumer sentiment likely eased in October, while households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady."

Mortgage rates today

There are five economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But September's CPI is likely to be by far the most consequential.

Like all price indices, the CPI comprises four headline figures. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (September), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Oct. 1, 2024 - Sep. 30, 2025).

Why two for each period? Well, one covers all the prices in the survey, while the other looks at all prices excluding food and energy ones. The latter is called "core" inflation, and the idea behind it is that food and energy prices tend to be the most volatile, meaning excluding them reveals the underlying trend.

Here are what markets are expecting from this morning's CPI:

• September CPI – Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.4% that month, unchanged since August
• YOY CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 3.1% year over year, up from August's 2.9%
• September core CPI — Markets expect core prices to have risen by 0.3% that month, unchanged since August
• YOY core CPI — Markets expect core prices to have risen by 3.1% year over year, unchanged since August

Today's four other reports include two October "flash" (provisional) purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from S&P Global, one for the services sector and another for the manufacturing sector. But it may be that the final reading of consumer sentiment in October is more influential. The fourth report, new home sales in September, rarely affects mortgage rates much. Here are market expectations for these:

• October S&P flash U.S. services PMI — Markets expecting 54.0, slightly down from the previous 54.2 reading
• October S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI — Markets expecting 51.8, slightly down from the previous 52.0 reading
• October consumer sentiment (final) — Markets expecting 54.9, slightly down from the previous 55.0 reading
• September new home sales — Markets expecting 710,000, appreciably down from August's 800,000

For all this morning's reports, higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward.

Unless the government re-opens, next week brings only a few economic reports that might move mortgage rates. However, the Federal Reserve is due to announce whether (and by how much) it will lower general interest rates at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. And that could be highly important.