The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.19% yesterday, a decrease of 0.08% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.32%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.53% yesterday, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.59%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates continued to drift gently downward yesterday, and are hovering close to three-year lows, according to Mortgage News Daily (MND). ICanBuy, our preferred source for rates data, says that the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage yesterday evening was 6.19%.
But that is close to the floor for those rates, if the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) forecasts are correct.
"MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni presented the forecast at the group's annual conference in Las Vegas on Sunday, projecting that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will remain roughly in the range of 6% to 6.5% through the end of 2028," reported Realtor.com yesterday.
Fannie Mae's September rates forecast concurs, although its economics team thinks that same rate might dip to 5.9% in the last quarter of 2026.
Of course, nobody can be sure what will happen to mortgage rates over the next 24 hours let alone the next three years. But the Fannie and MBA teams are pretty credible.
If they're right this time, it may be a sign for buyers and sellers who are waiting for mortgage rates to fall that their wait could be a very long one. Some may prefer to bite the bullet now rather than face years of uncertainty.
A boring day
When MND summarized yesterday's mortgage rates, it said it was "another boring day." And it was right.
So far this month, those rates have risen modestly on two days, held steady on two days, and fallen, mostly modestly, on every other business day. That's lovely, but exciting it ain't.
Things might perk up on Friday, when the consumer price index is scheduled for exceptional release. But, absent the reopening of the government, most of this week's other data look unlikely to move mortgage rates far.
We see no point in boring you further by repeating the same talking points again and again. So, we'll keep these daily briefings fairly short on days when we have nothing new to say.
If you're a new reader, check out yesterday's report, which contained quite a lot of information.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.19% | 6.22% | -0.08% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.32% | 5.37% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.74% | -0.04% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.79% | -0.06% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.54% | 5.68% | -0.19% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.59% | 6.61% | -0.03% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.16% | 6.2% | -0.02% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.31% | 5.35% | +0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.48% | 6.7% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.8% | -0.07% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.25% | 6.28% | +0.08% | -0.13% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there is only one exception. The September consumer price index is scheduled for release this Friday.
Here is Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from economic reports this week:
"The September inflation report will probably show a sharp monthly increase in headline consumer prices and a moderate rise in core prices,
resulting in annual changes for both measures holding above 3%. Big jumps in beef and electricity prices are expected to have contributed to
the higher inflation print. S&P Global’s Flash PMIs [purchasing managers' indices] will likely show a further moderation in economic activity in both manufacturing and services sectors. Boosted by lower mortgage rates, existing home sales probably rose last month. Weighed down by the government shutdown, consumer sentiment likely eased in October, while households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar, nor on tomorrow's.
