The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.27% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.33%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.56%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.63%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"Mortgage rates inched down this week and have held relatively steady over the past several weeks," said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, in an email statement yesterday. "Importantly, homeowners have noticed these consistently lower rates, driving an uptick in refinance activity. Combined with increased housing inventory and slower house price growth, these rates are also creating a more favorable environment for those looking to buy a home."
Freddie reckons the weekly average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.27% over the seven days ending October 16. Other sources, which measure daily rather than weekly mortgage rates, confirm the downward trend. However, the two gauges we follow most closely show larger falls that Freddie calculates over the last seven days.
These rates have been falling consistently this month and are now immediately adjacent to the low reached in mid-September. That was their lowest point in 12 months.
How long might mortgage rates continue on their downward path?
All good things come to an end. And mortgage rates will inevitably head higher at some point.
However, we see no reason right now to expect a change of direction very soon. Currently, the two events that look most likely to send mortgage rates upward are a swift resolution to the growing trade dispute with China and a reopening of the U.S. government.
The current shutdown has so far had a good though slight effect on mortgage rates. That's because those rates tend to fall when the economy is struggling, and the shutdown is doing few favors to growth prospects. And the longer it drags on, the more economic damage it could wreak.
So, a reopening might itself exert gentle upward pressure. However, a bigger risk of volatility is posed by the releases of economic data that a reopening should trigger.
Don't expect all the reports to land at once because some will require more work to complete their compilation. However, some, including the all-important jobs report for September, should be released soon after a reopening.
Report publications could work either way for mortgage rates, depending on the numbers they contain. Better-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones usually drag them lower.
One official report should still be published regardless of the shutdown. That's September's consumer price index, which is scheduled for publication next Friday. Between now and then, we're due only private-sector reports, most of which rarely affect mortgage rates perceptibly.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.3% | -0.02% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.38% | -0.01% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.78% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.85% | +0.01% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.01% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | -0.01% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.18% | 6.22% | +-0% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.3% | 6.32% | -0.04% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.3% | 5.34% | -0.03% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.51% | 6.73% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.01% | +0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.18% | 6.21% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
