
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.28% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.35%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.59% yesterday, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.63%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Today should be crammed with important economic data, including the retail sales report and the producer price index. But the government shutdown means no official figures will be released.
A couple of minor reports should still appear this morning, but they rarely affect mortgage rates. No economic reports are scheduled for tomorrow.
In the absence of reliable data, investors are highly sensitive to news that affects or reflects on the performance of the economy. So, for example, an escalation in the brewing trade war with China could drive mortgage rates lower, while a de-escalation might push them higher.
Similarly, political rhetoric that makes an early government reopening look more likely could raise mortgage rates, while continuing conflict on Capitol Hill might lower them.
The simple rule of thumb is that mortgage rates tend to rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's deteriorating. Note that's not an iron rule, but it works most of the time.
Yesterday's Fed Beige Book good for mortgage rates?
Assuming that rule of thumb applied, yesterday's Beige Book from the Federal Reserve would have been good for mortgage rates, which fell modestly that day. True, this publication rarely affects those rates, but with no data to distract them, markets may have paid more attention to this anecdotal publication than usual.
As we said yesterday, quoting the Fed, "Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources."
The book said about nationwide trends (all the following are direct quotes):
- Economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening.
- Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks ...
- Employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labor was generally muted across Districts and sectors. In most Districts, more employers reported lowering head counts through layoffs and attrition, with contacts citing weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty, and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence technologies.
- Prices rose further during the reporting period. Several District reports indicated that input costs increased at a faster pace due to
higher import costs and the higher cost of services such as insurance, health care, and technology solutions. Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied.
The first three of those might have helped mortgage rates. But the fourth is unlikely to have done so.
Warmer-than-desirable inflation pretty much always exerts upward pressure on those rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | -0.01% | +0.09% |
15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.4% | +0.01% | +0.15% |
30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | -0.05% | +0.05% |
30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.84% | -0.04% | +0.12% |
30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.02% | +0.27% |
30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | +0% | +-0% |
5/6 Year ARM | 6.18% | 6.22% | -0.06% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.37% | +-0% | +0.13% |
30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.75% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.02% | +0.12% |
5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.29% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, neither of them typically moves mortgage rates much, if at all.
Neither is published by the government, meaning both should still be available despite the shutdown.
The first is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (aka the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey) for October, which is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third (Philadelphia) Federal Reserve District. Markets expect the index to tumble to 10, down from September's 23.2.
In line with the rule of thumb, a lower-than-expected number might ease mortgage rates lower, while a higher-than-expected one might edge them upward.
The second of today's reports is October's home builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders. Markets have no consensus forecast for this on which to base their expectations.
No reports are scheduled for publication tomorrow, meaning today's are the final reports of the week.
