The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.28% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.35%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.59%, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.63%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell again warned investors that they shouldn't take future cuts to general interest rates for granted. Those cuts may come, but only if the Fed is convinced by economic data that they're prudent.
"There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals," said Powell, according to the official transcript of his speech.
"This challenge was evident in the dispersion of Committee participants' projections at the September meeting," Powell continued. "I will stress again that these projections should be understood as representing a range of potential outcomes whose probabilities evolve as new information informs our meeting-by-meeting approach to policymaking. We will set policy based on the evolution of the economic outlook and the balance of risks, rather than following a predetermined path."
Markets pretty much shrugged off Powell's warning. The CME FedWatch tool last night put the chances of a cut after the next Fed meeting at the end of this month at 97.3% (down from yesterday's 98.3%) and one following the December meeting at 93.5%, down from yesterday's 95.5%.
So, some investors are listening to Powell. But very few.
There's a risk here for low mortgage rates. Currently, markets are pricing in those cuts with high confidence. If the Fed doesn't deliver on them, mortgage rates are likely to rise.
Better news for mortgage rates
Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its latest global economic outlook. It said:
" ... despite multiple offsetting drivers, the tariff shock is further dimming already lackluster growth prospects. We expect a slowdown in the second half of this year, with only a partial recovery in 2026, and, compared to last October’s projections, inflation is expected to be
persistently higher. Even in the United States, growth is weaker and inflation higher than we projected last year—hallmarks of a negative
supply shock."
Mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy is struggling and rise when it's thriving. So, the prospect of slower growth is welcome, although only as far as those rates are concerned.
Too-warm inflation, however, is very bad news for mortgage rates. It pretty much always pushes them higher.
In other words, we must hope that the IMF is right about growth and wrong about inflation.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | -0.01% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.4% | +0.01% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | -0.05% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.84% | -0.04% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.02% | +0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | +0% | +-0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.18% | 6.22% | -0.06% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.37% | +-0% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.53% | 6.75% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.02% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.29% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, neither of them typically moves mortgage rates much, if at all.
Both are published by the Fed, meaning they should still be available despite the government shutdown. The first is the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The Fed says, "Participants from across [New York] state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction
of these same indicators six months ahead."
Markets are expecting today's figure to be -0.5, which sounds bad but is way better than September's dire -8.7. As we said, markets rarely pay attention to this survey, but mortgage rates typically fall on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers beat expectations.
This afternoon, we're due the Fed Beige Book. The Fed says, "Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts,
economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector."
So, this can provide some useful insights. But, because its content is anecdotal rather than empirical, markets have no definable expectations of it.
