The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.34% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.4%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
On Friday, we received an email notification from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits."
That means no official (published by the government) economic reports will be released this week, absent the government reopening. And the only data that will be available before that reopening will be the CPI next Friday.
We will still get figures compiled by private-sector sources and the Federal Reserve. And that includes today's small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Others on this week's calendar are:
- Empire State manufacturing survey (Wednesday)
- Fed Beige Book (also Wednesday)
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Thursday)
- Home builder confidence index (also Thursday)
None of these typically affects mortgage rates much. And they pale in significance compared with the reports markets mainly rely on, especially those concerning employment, inflation and retail sales.
Shutdown looks likely to drag on
Don't expect a quick reopening. "Republican Speaker Mike Johnson predicted Monday the federal government shutdown may become the longest in history, saying he 'won’t negotiate' with Democrats until they hit pause on their health care demands and reopen," reports AP.
Meanwhile, the odds last night on the betting website Kalshi showed a 57% chance of the shutdown lasting 30 days or longer.
Tariffs back in the spotlight
Mortgage rates fell moderately on Friday. Well, it would have been a moderate fall during normal times, but it was one of the bigger ones compared with the small movements we've been seeing recently.
What triggered the fall? It was an announcement that the government was considering increasing the tariff rate on Chinese imports, raising that to an average 130% from the existing 30%.
However, the U.S. side began rowing back that threat over the weekend:
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment," the president wrote on Sunday on his Truth Social platform, continuing, “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
Most stock indices began to rally yesterday in response to the news. If that continues today, mortgage rates might rise again.
However, overnight, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region were falling again, so maybe those rates will have another good day.
(Mortgage rates couldn't increase yesterday because bond markets were closed for Columbus day. Stock markets opened despite the holiday.)
We've been here before, and markets are much less likely to respond violently to tariff news than they were earlier in the year. Still, they won't appreciate the new uncertainty.
What economists think is coming next
On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal published its quarterly survey of distinguished economists. It contained good and bad news for mortgage rates.
If the economists are proved right (hardly a given), growth will improve during the last three months of this year: "On average, economists expect gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to increase 1.7% in the fourth quarter this year from a year
earlier, up sharply from the July survey average of 1%," said The Journal. "For 2026, they still expect growth of 1.9%."
Such good news for the economy tends to push mortgage rates higher. However, that may be balanced out by news on inflation.
The economists surveyed now believe that tariffs will add 0.5 percentage points to year-over-year inflation, down from the 1 percentage point increase they were expecting six months ago. Mortgage rates tend to be low when prices are stable.
There was one other prediction in The Journal's survey that might be bad for future mortgage rates:
" ... under [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell’s successor, 79% of respondents said, the Fed would be either 'not independent' or 'partially independent,' meaning the government would exercise moderate to significant influence on monetary policy. An even larger 85% said the same if the Supreme Court allows" Fed Governor Lisa Powell to be fired by the government," said the survey report.
Domestic and foreign investors set great store by the Fed's independence. If they believe that's been lost, they may begin to avoid buying U.S. Treasury bonds, notes and bills, and be less willing to fund American debt generally. And that could be very bad news for mortgage rates — eventually.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.37% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.9% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | +0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.39% | +0% | +-0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.42% | +0% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | +0% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.91% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.34% | 6.37% | +0% | -0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar, the small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). This rarely influences investors, so MarketWatch does not publish a forecast of its likely results.
