The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.39% yesterday, an increase of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.43%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.69% yesterday, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.71%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Freddie Mac yesterday reported that mortgage rates are at a 12-month low. During the week ending October 9, 2024, those for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.34%. Yesterday, October 9, 2025, those same rates averaged 6.30%. And they've been no lower than those figures all year.
"Mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in an e-newsletter. “Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year. There is growing evidence that homebuyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home, which is boosting purchase activity.”
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) calculates, "At this rate, with a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment is
$1,981 for a home priced at $400,000. With a 10% down payment, the typical payment would be $2,228."
However, the NAR also noted less favorable news for those yet to get on the homeownership ladder. "Higher rates for longer have exacerbated a 'haves' vs 'have-nots' housing market. Homeowners continue to build wealth, with nearly one-third making all-cash purchases on their next home, while potential first-time buyers are shut out of buying."
Still, many first-time buyers must be weighing the opportunity that current low mortgage rates gives them. The October 2025
ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, published this week, says, "ICE data reveals that home affordability has reached its best level in 2.5 years, driven by easing mortgage rates."
Government shutdown slowing the economy
Since before the shutdown started, we've been predicting that a prolonged closure of the government would likely send mortgage rates gently lower.
We weren't being especially clever. A weakening economy almost always causes those rates to drop.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal gave examples of how this shutdown, after just over a week, is already harming some businesses:
"An Alameda, Calif., medical-device company postponed a planned spinoff, unable to pursue regulatory approvals," the Journal reported. "A Florida marketing company laid off five employees after receiving a stop-work order on a federal contract. A Minnesota subcontractor is trying to keep a half-dozen electricians working while it waits for a stalled government contract.
"The shutdown is disrupting business as usual in many ways — and reinforcing just how many private-sector operations depend on a federal bureaucracy humming on all cylinders. Government-backed small-business lending has ground to a halt. Agencies can’t award or make payments on many new contracts. Scheduled workplace-safety inspections are on hold and so are many regulatory reviews."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.39% | 6.42% | +0.04% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.47% | +0.06% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.69% | 6.9% | +0.05% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.96% | +0.08% | +0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.04% | +0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.71% | 6.73% | +0.04% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.08% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.45% | 6.48% | +0.05% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.41% | 5.45% | +0.05% | +0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +0.06% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.83% | 5.98% | +0.08% | +0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.4% | 6.42% | +0.08% | +0.15% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's view of what to expect this week:
"Financial markets will dissect the minutes of the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market Committee] September meeting to search for new clues about policymakers’ views of the economy and future monetary policy and try to clarify the wide split of views among Committee members. Consumer sentiment is expected to have eased in early October, while short- and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady at elevated levels. Consumer credit growth likely moderated in August following robust expansion in the prior month. If the government shutdown doesn’t prevent their release, foreign trade data will likely show the deficit narrowed in August, and the federal fiscal balance swung to a seasonal surplus in September."
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Consumer sentiment is measured by the University of Michigan, so it's unaffected by the government shutdown, which is preventing the publication of official data.
Markets are expecting today's consumer sentiment index, which is a preliminary one for October, to fall to 53.5 from 60.4 in September.
That's the headline figure, but expect investors to dig deeper into the data. They'll be particularly interested in consumer expectations for future inflation and employment trends.
Typically, higher-than-expected numbers push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones tend to drag those rates downward.
Don't forget that markets will be closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday. Mortgage rates shouldn't move that day, so we'll take a break and return on Tuesday. Enjoy your extended weekend!
