The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.35% yesterday, a decrease of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.37%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.64% yesterday, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates have been largely becalmed for weeks now. An occasional gust might have pushed them up or down a bit, but they've remained within a tight range.
That's continued during the government shutdown, partly because no official economic data can be released until furloughed civil servants return to work. You can't make course corrections when the compass and GPS on the bridge are turned off.
There are two potential problems with this. First, economically relevant news might take on fresh importance during the current information vacuum, moving markets and mortgage rates further than they normally could.
Secondly, when the government's delayed data are finally released, investors may find themselves further off course than they thought, necessitating sharp corrections in markets. That could lead to increased volatility, including for mortgage rates.
Yesterday's Fed minutes
As we suspected, yesterday's meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve revealed little that we didn't already know. They may have kept mortgage rates slightly higher than they otherwise might have been, but you'd hardly notice their impact.
Here's how Barron's described the minutes yesterday afternoon: "Minutes
from the central bank’s Sept. 16-17 meeting — where officials lowered
rates for the first time this year by a quarter percentage point to
between 4.00% and 4.25% — show a committee wrestling with conflicting
economic signals and struggling to reach consensus on which is the most
pressing issue, stubborn inflation or a weakening labor market.
"Most
participants 'judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy
further over the remainder of this year,' read the meeting notes,
released Wednesday afternoon."
We already knew that. Immediately after the last meeting, the Fed published its latest summary of economic projections. And that showed 10 officials backing two more cuts this year, while nine wanted there to be one or none.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.38% | -0.03% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.05% | +0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | -0.08% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.04% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | -0.04% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.33% | 6.37% | -0.09% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.05% | +0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | -0.08% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.08% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.1% | -0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's view of what to expect this week:
"Financial markets will dissect the minutes of the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market Committee] September meeting to search for new clues about policymakers’ views of the economy and future monetary policy and try to clarify the wide split of views among Committee members. Consumer sentiment is expected to have eased in early October, while short- and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady at elevated levels. Consumer credit growth likely moderated in August following robust expansion in the prior month. If the government shutdown doesn’t prevent their release, foreign trade data will likely show the deficit narrowed in August, and the federal fiscal balance swung to a seasonal surplus in September."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
