The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.35% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.64%, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.67%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
At one time, the Federal Reserve's publication of its policy meeting minutes was always a significant event. But, in recent years, the Fed's gotten better at communicating its officials' views, and those minutes now tend to contain fewer surprises than they used to.
Nevertheless, Wall Street and investors around the world still check the minutes when they're published in the hope of gleaning some new information. And that will happen at 3 p.m. Eastern this afternoon.
Whether or not mortgage rates move in response to this afternoon's publication will depend on whether they reveal fresh insights. If the minutes suggest that future Fed cuts to general interest rates are less likely than markets currently believe, those rates might rise. Conversely, reassurance that investors' thinking is in line with the Fed's could see those rates fall.
Government shutdown updates
Yesterday, we told you about "a glimmer of hope in the shutdown saga." "President Trump signaled a willingness to strike a deal on extending healthcare subsidies demanded by Democrats, as the government shutdown entered its second week," said The Wall Street Journal the day before yesterday. "'We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday."
That glimmer was brief when hours later the president clarified his position, "insisting that Democrats must end the standoff first before he would be willing to make a deal on health care," according to The New York Times.
Meanwhile, the government is threatening to withhold back pay from many of its employees when the shutdown ends. "A new memo disclosed on Tuesday asserts that under a 2019 law meant to ensure back pay after a shutdown ends, the administration isn’t
obligated to pay furloughed employees," reports The Wall Street Journal. "The memo was prepared by the Office of Management and Budget last week." The Journal says it has had sight of the memo.
This raises issues for the economy as well as the individual furloughed employees who might be affected. Normally, government shutdowns tend to depress economic activity a little while they last, but growth rebounds once civil servants start spending their back pay.
If fewer of them have back pay to spend this time, the economy may take a more sustained hit.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.38% | -0.03% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.05% | +0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | -0.08% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.04% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.69% | -0.04% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.33% | 6.37% | -0.09% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.05% | +0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | -0.08% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.08% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.1% | -0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's view of what to expect this week:
"Financial markets will dissect the minutes of the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market Committee] September meeting to search for new clues about policymakers’ views of the economy and future monetary policy and try to clarify the wide split of views among Committee members. Consumer sentiment is expected to have eased in early October, while short- and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady at elevated levels. Consumer credit growth likely moderated in August following robust expansion in the prior month. If the government shutdown doesn’t prevent their release, foreign trade data will likely show the deficit narrowed in August, and the federal fiscal balance swung to a seasonal surplus in September."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And, owing to the government shutdown, none will be published tomorrow, either.
As we said yesterday, the Federal Reserve is due to publish some key minutes at 3 p.m. Eastern this afternoon. They're the record of the last meeting of the Fed's monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). See above for more information.
