The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.36% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.37%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.64%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Kalshi quotes odds of 67% that the shutdown will run longer than 10 days. Polymarket customers believe there's a 78% chance of it continuing beyond Oct 9, and a 42% chance of it lasting until Oct 15 or beyond.
For the 50 shutdowns since the 1970s, the average length has been nine days, says MarketWatch. So, a lot of those wagering on the outcome expect a longer-than-average duration.
MarketWatch continues: "A shutdown that stretches much beyond the average 'will start to significantly impact economic growth and consumer confidence, which isn’t flying high to begin with,' Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, told MarketWatch in an interview."
Read How the Government Shutdown Might Affect Mortgage Rates for our more detailed analysis.
Upcoming economic data
Owing to the shutdown, data published by the government will not be released. And that means September's jobs report, due this morning, will not appear.
Next week would have been light on data even if official reports were still being published. As it is, only a couple of reports due that week are scheduled for release.
We'll have to wait to see whether investors trust their guts in the absence of empirical data or whether they seize on the few private-sector reports that do appear like hungry vultures.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.39% | +-0% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | +-0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.64% | 6.66% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0.01% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.43% | +-0% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | +-0% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.4% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on economic reports scheduled for this week, whether or not they actually appear:
"The September jobs report is forecast to show another month of modest employment growth, holding the unemployment rate steady. The labor force participation rate, the average workweek, earnings, and job openings likely eased. The ISM PMIs are forecast to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, but the services sector in expansion. Led by a steep decline in homebuilding, construction spending is forecast to fall for the tenth month running. House prices probably edged lower again in July, with a further slowdown in annual house price increases. Pending home sales likely rebounded as mortgage rates fell."
Mortgage rates today
Two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar are published by the private sector, so they will appear as usual. They're both purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), which measure activity in organizations' procurement departments. The one from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) tends to influence markets more than the one from S&P Global.
Here are what markets are expecting from each of this morning's reports:
- S&P final services PMI for September — Markets expect 54.0, very slightly better than the previous 53.9
- ISM services PMI for September — Markets expect 52.0%, unchanged from the previous reading
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
