The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.37% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.37%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.65%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Wednesday's ADP employment report for September showed the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs instead of creating 45,000, as markets had been expecting. A revision saw the same data for August tumbling to -3,000, compared with the +54,000 reported a month ago.
That's pretty scary for two reasons:
- The government shutdown means there's no official jobs report tomorrow, so there's no prospect of new data to soften the blow.
- Top-level government sources are threatening to use the shutdown as an opportunity to fire "a lot" of civil servants, meaning there's no hope of public-sector payrolls offsetting private-sector job losses.
So, why did mortgage rates, which typically fall on bad economic data, essentially remain unchanged following ADP's news? It may have been that the economy is generally showing great resilience.
A strong economy
Most recent economic data have suggested that, leaving aside the labor market, the economy remains strong. And that impression was borne out by yesterday's second economic report.
September's purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management showed a better-than-expected improvement, rising to 49.1% from August's 48.7%.
That may not account entirely for yesterday's fall in mortgage rates being so tiny, but it was probably a factor.
Stand by for our analysis of how the shutdown might affect mortgage rates. It will appear in our news section soon.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.4% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.94% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.65% | 6.67% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +-0% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.39% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on economic reports scheduled for this week, whether or not they actually appear:
"The September jobs report is forecast to show another month of modest employment growth, holding the unemployment rate steady. The labor force participation rate, the average workweek, earnings, and job openings likely eased. The ISM PMIs are forecast to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, but the services sector in expansion. Led by a steep decline in homebuilding, construction spending is forecast to fall for the tenth month running. House prices probably edged lower again in July, with a further slowdown in annual house price increases. Pending home sales likely rebounded as mortgage rates fell."
Mortgage rates today
Both economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar are published by the government, so they will be delayed until after the lockdown ends.
For the same reason, tomorrow's official jobs report will be similarly delayed. However, a couple of PMIs generated by the private sector should still be published on Friday.
