The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.37% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.66%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.65%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Last night, legislators on Capitol Hill failed to reach an agreement on a last-minute attempt to avert a government shutdown. So, since midnight, all non-essential federal civil servants are on furlough, and many government services are either unavailable or offered in a cut-down form.
Government shutdowns typically have only a limited effect on the economy, markets and mortgage rates. They're usually brief, and, while hundreds of thousands of civil servants are furloughed, they're soon reinstated and get the pay they missed out on. Any short-term harm is soon balanced out by a back-to-work boost.
But this time may be different. "The shutdown could be more consequential than those that have happened in the past, said The Wall Street Journal early this morning.
To start with, this one could be longer than most. The last one, back in 2019, lasted 35 days, which was a record. The president was unwilling to make a quick deal then and may feel the same way this time.
As importantly, with hours to go before the shutdown started, the government signaled that it "could try to maximize the pain of a fast-approaching government shutdown, threatening to leverage the imminent closure to fire 'a lot' of civil servants and slash a range of federal programs and benefits that [it] disfavors," in the words of The New York Times.
So, this shutdown might turn out to be longer than most and to end with a much smaller back-to-work boost. Indeed, if the government follows through on its threat to fire many civil servants, that could increase unemployment and reduce consumer expenditures, which are an important component of gross domestic product.
Meanwhile, if the shutdown lasts, investors won't be happy that they'll miss out on official economic reports, most notably Friday's jobs report and this month's inflation reports, the consumer price index, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
As a silvery lining, none of this is likely to push mortgage rates higher. Indeed, it could help them fall.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.4% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.94% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.65% | 6.67% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +-0% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.39% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on economic reports scheduled for this week, whether or not they actually appear:
"The September jobs report is forecast to show another month of modest employment growth, holding the unemployment rate steady. The labor force participation rate, the average workweek, earnings, and job openings likely eased. The ISM PMIs are forecast to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, but the services sector in expansion. Led by a steep decline in homebuilding, construction spending is forecast to fall for the tenth month running. House prices probably edged lower again in July, with a further slowdown in annual house price increases. Pending home sales likely rebounded as mortgage rates fell."
Mortgage rates today
Three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar come from private-sector sources, meaning they should appear despite the shutdown. Construction spending data, generated by the government's Census Bureau, will almost certainly not appear.
Two of the three are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), which measure activity in organizations' procurement departments, making them a useful predictor of economic activity. Ones from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) tend to be more influential than those from S&P Global.
The three reports are:
- September ADP employment — Markets expect 45,000 new private-sector jobs that month, down from August's 54,000
- September S&P final manufacturing PMI — Markets expect a reading of 52.0, unchanged since August
- September ISM manufacturing PMI — Markets expect a reading of 49.8%, slightly better than August's 48.7%
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
Both tomorrow's scheduled economic reports are government ones, so they shouldn't appear. Friday is likely to be missing its September jobs report, meaning the remaining reports we'll see this week will probably number just two: a couple of PMIs for the services sector from the ISM and S&P Global.
