The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.22% yesterday, a decrease of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.34%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.49% yesterday, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.77%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Occasionally, companies that monitor daily mortgage rates have very different readings. And yesterday was one such time.
Our favored source, ICanBuy (ICB), reckoned the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slipped by 3 basis points (0.03%). But Mortgage News Daily (MND) thought that average dropped by 12 basis points (0.12%). MND says, "These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022."
The smaller drop reported by ICB much more closely tracked yields on 10-year Treasury notes, and can easily be explained by yesterday's economic reports. All three of the important reports tended to mildly favor a drop in mortgage rates.
But MND can justify the gap between Treasury and mortgage rate movements. "If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is," the company says. "In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this, and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds."
We'll have to wait for a few days to see whether ICB or MND was right. Scroll down to discover what might influence mortgage rates today.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.22% | 6.25% | -0.03% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.39% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.71% | -0.07% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.6% | 5.74% | -0.02% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.51% | 5.65% | -0.06% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.77% | 6.79% | +0% | +0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.06% | -0.03% | -0.14% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.3% | -0.07% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.33% | 5.37% | -0.03% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.67% | -0.08% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.78% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | -0.04% | -0.21% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
Today's initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 22 may influence mortgage rates because markets are hungry for current employment data. However, we'll be surprised if September's durable goods orders (also due today) or Friday's Chicago business barometer for November have any perceptible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 22 — Markets expect 225,000, slightly up from the previous week's 220,000
- September durable-goods orders — Markets expect new orders to have risen by 0.5%, compared with 2.9% in August
Worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower, while better-than-expected figures usually send
them upward.
You won't have forgotten that tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Markets will be closed, so mortgage rates shouldn't move.
We'll be taking the day off, too, and will be back on Friday morning. Enjoy the holiday!
