The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.25% yesterday, a decrease of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.38%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.57% yesterday, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.77%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Today's three important economic reports have the potential to be game changers. But that doesn't mean they necessarily will be.
How much effect they have on markets and mortgage rates will depend on the data they contain. Worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower, while better-than-expected figures usually send them upward. Scroll down to find the market expectations for today's reports.
The Fed
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting body is due to announce whether general interest rates will be cut or remain unchanged on Dec. 10.
"No one seems to agree on the Federal Reserve’s next move," said Barron's over the weekend. "Investors, analysts, and even Fed officials themselves appear increasingly torn. A weakening labor market, still-high inflation, gaps in critical economic data, and a sharply divided rate-setting committee have left investors trading on mere fragments of information, in a landscape that has become unusually hard to read."
But that hasn't stopped Wall Street optimists from deciding a rate cut is highly likely. Last night, the CME FedWatch tool put the chances of a December cut at 84.4%. Last Wednesday, following the release of gloomy minutes of the Fed's last meeting, the odds were down around 30%.
What's happened since to change Wall Street's minds? Not a lot. Some senior Fed officials have said a rate cut should happen. And other senior Fed officials have said one shouldn't. Markets are looking on the bright side because it suits them.
Today's economic reports take on extra significance because they could tilt the Fed's decision one way or the other. Scroll down for more.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.28% | -0.04% | +-0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.42% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | -0.08% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | -0.08% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.56% | 5.7% | -0.17% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.77% | 6.79% | +0% | +0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.1% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.37% | -0.03% | -0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.54% | 6.75% | -0.07% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | -0.06% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | -0.02% | -0.17% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
We're due three potentially mortgage-rate-moving reports today. However, besides those, other data scheduled for this week rarely affect mortgage rates.
Tomorrow's initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 22 may be an exception because markets are hungry for employment data. However, we'll be surprised if September's durable goods orders (also due tomorrow) or Friday's Chicago business barometer for November have any perceptible impact on mortgage rates.
Naturally, no reports are scheduled for Thursday because markets and report providers will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Here's the Comerica Bank economics team's preview of the week:
"Retail sales are forecast to have posted a large increase in September, as consumers rushed to purchase EVs before the expiry of tax credits at the end of that month, but core retail sales likely increased at a more moderate pace. Weak commodity prices likely tempered producer price increases in September. Continuing a multi-month trend, annual house price inflation likely eased again in September. Consumer confidence probably rose as the government shutdown ended, echoing the uptick in consumer sentiment reported by the University of Michigan last week. The report on GDP for the third quarter, originally scheduled for this week, is delayed due to the government shutdown."
Mortgage rates today
There are three important economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- September retail sales — Markets expect growth of 0.3%, half of August's 06%
- September producer price index (PPI) — Markets expect this inflation indicator to have risen by 0.3%, compared with -0.1% in August
- November consumer confidence — Markets expect this index to have fallen to 93.2 from the previous 94.6
Other reports due today rarely trouble mortgage rates. But, for completeness, they are:
- September S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) — Price rises expected to slow to 1.3% from 1.6% in August
- August business inventories — Expected to hold steady after a 0.2% rise in July
- October pending home sales — Expected to hold steady, as they did in September
As we said before, worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower, while better-than-expected figures usually send
them upward.
