The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, a decrease of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.43%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.77%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
This time yesterday, we thought mortgage rates today were likely to rise. But we were wrong. If anything, they fell a little.
We based our expectation on two things:
- The Fed minutes published on Wednesday made a December cut to general interest rates less likely.
- Nvidia's third-quarter earnings, published the same afternoon, were way better than expected. And stock indices were rising in after-hours trading.
The remaining wildcard was the September jobs report, which was published yesterday morning. That showed a much faster hiring rate that month than had been expected, something that would normally push mortgage rates higher.
However, the report also said that the unemployment rate had inched up to 4.4% from 4.3%, something that would normally drag mortgage rates lower. Those two data points pretty much canceled each other out.
"The Labor Department report leaves an already divided Federal Reserve with stale and somewhat inconclusive government data as the central bank heads into its next meeting in December," said The Wall Street Journal yesterday. "The September numbers ... say little about how the economy is doing in this moment and where it may be headed."
Read on for what we think sent mortgage rates lower yesterday.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.04% | +0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.48% | -0.03% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0.04% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.85% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.74% | 5.88% | -0.02% | +0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.77% | 6.79% | +0.01% | +0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.12% | 6.15% | -0.01% | -0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.42% | 6.44% | -0.01% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | -0.03% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | +0.04% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.02% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.14% | 6.17% | -0.02% | -0.08% |
Stock market rout resumes, moving mortgage rates
Yesterday's big surprise was in the stock market. Nvidia's earnings report seemed to have given it a shot in the arm in overnight and early trading. But by the end of the day, the market had seen the biggest intraday selloff since April.
MarketWatch reported, "The optimism proved short-lived. Around midmorning in New York on Thursday, markets were struck by a wave of selling that weighed on stocks ... An exact catalyst was unclear, according to Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. But investors were retreating from risky assets and shifting into bonds; Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, declined."
That last sentence is key. When panicky investors move their money out of exciting and profitable stocks, they often choose to reinvest it in boring but safe bonds. And mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). MBSs' yields often shadow those on 10-year Treasury notes, and they both dipped yesterday.
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With a government reopening underway, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced, "The Producer Price Index for September 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. ... We will update the release calendar as new release dates are finalized."
On Thursday, the BLS said, "The Employment Situation for November 2025 will be released on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time." Only some data from October will be made available, and only within the November report.
The timing of the November jobs report won't help mortgage rates. The release date is after the Fed's next rate-setting meeting, which ends on Dec. 10. So, the only employment data capable of influencing that decision will be yesterday's. And those were unhelpful.
Comerica Bank's economics team published on Monday a preview of today: "The flash estimates of PMI [purchasing manager index] surveys from S&P Global are forecast down slightly in November, but the University of Michigan’s consumer survey likely improved as the government shutdown ended."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
The one we think is most likely to affect mortgage rates is the final consumer sentiment index for November. The other two reports, also for November, are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from S&P Global, one for the services sector and the other for the manufacturing sector.
Here are what markets are expecting from each:
- November consumer sentiment — Markets expect 51.0, up from 50.3 previously
- November services PMI — Markets expect 54.5, down from 54.8 previously
- November manufacturing PMI — Markets expect 52.0, down from 52.5 previously
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward. Lower-than-expected numbers often send those rates downward.
No economic reports are scheduled for release on Monday. But we know that the producer price index (PPI) should be out next Tuesday.
