The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.37% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.46%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.62% yesterday, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.76%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we explored the three scheduled things this week that are most likely to move mortgage rates:
- The Federal Reserve's publication of key meeting minutes early yesterday afternoon
- The release of third-quarter earnings for Nvidia, the biggest player in artificial intelligence (AI), later yesterday afternoon
- Publication of the September jobs report this morning
The first two of those have now happened. And neither of them was friendly toward mortgage rates.
True, those rates barely moved yesterday. However, they likely would have increased had the Fed's minutes and Nvidia's earnings been released earlier in the day. That means they may rise today.
"Nvidia reported record sales and strong guidance Wednesday, helping soothe jitters about an artificial intelligence bubble that have reverberated in markets for the last week," said The Wall Street Journal yesterday evening.
Meanwhile, Barron's reported, "Minutes from the Fed’s Oct. 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday, show a committee divided over whether to continue easing or to hold rates steady through year-end. Officials lowered the federal-funds rate to a 3.75% to 4.00% range at that meeting, the second cut of 2025. They spent much of the discussion debating how to weigh persistent inflation against mounting signs of labor-market strain."
Most commentators think the minutes lessened the chances of the Fed cutting general interest rates on Dec. 10. And the CME FedWatch tool suggests investors concur. The odds of such a cut fell yesterday to 32.8%, sharply down from 50.1% on Tuesday and 93.7% a month ago.
Read on for more about the third bullet point: September's jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern this morning.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.39% | +-0% | +0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | -0.01% | +0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.76% | 6.78% | +0.01% | +0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.13% | 6.16% | -0.03% | -0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.43% | 6.46% | +-0% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.49% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.07% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.16% | 6.2% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With a government reopening underway, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
That means that this week's calendar is far from certain. September's jobs report (aka employment situation report) should be released this morning, but that might be the only official data all week.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced, "The Producer Price Index for September 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. ... We will update the release calendar as new release dates are finalized."
Yesterday, the BLS said, "The Employment Situation for November 2025 will be released on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time." Only some data from October will be made available, and only within the November report.
The timing of the November jobs report won't help mortgage rates. The release date is after the Fed's next rate-setting meeting, which ends on Dec. 10. So, the only employment data capable of influencing that decision will be today's. And it could go either way.
Comerica Bank's economics team published on Monday a preview of the rest of this week:
"Besides the minutes, the largest event is the long-delayed September
jobs report, which the BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] will release on
November
20. ... Other scheduled (but likely delayed) releases include
industrial production and capacity utilization, which probably rose
modestly in October. Building permits and housing starts likely
registered an annualized rate of around 1.350 million last month.
Homebuilder sentiment is expected to have shown a small uptick. The
decline in mortgage rates last month probably boosted sales of existing
homes. The flash estimates of PMI [purchasing manager index] surveys
from S&P Global are forecast down slightly in November, but the
University of Michigan’s consumer survey likely improved as the
government shutdown ended."
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But only one is likely to influence mortgage rates.
That, of course, is the jobs report for September. We'll be surprised if it doesn't wholly overshadow the others. Here's what markets are expecting from what's likely to be the entire month's star report:
- Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created during September) — Markets expect 50,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 in August.
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect 4.3%, unchanged since August.
- Average hourly earnings — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, unchanged since August. (Up 3.7% year-over-year, also unchanged.)
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, although the unemployment rate is an exception. Lower-than-expected numbers often send those rates downward, although with the same exception.
