Mortgage Rates Today, November 19, 2025: Federal Reserve Minutes Due This Afternoon as Stock Market Rout Continues

The bigger picture

For a second consecutive day, mortgage rates barely budged yesterday, despite stock markets continuing to fall for a fourth consecutive day. That market's troubles are likely down to two issues.

The most obvious cause of stock prices falling is fear that much of the trillions invested in artificial intelligence (AI) may be wasted. As with most big innovations, a few companies will likely become global players, but most will fail.

However, the stock market is also concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates again on Dec. 10, following its next meeting.

"Ultimately the fate of the AI trade and the wider market lies with the Fed — with the chance it will pause its rate-cutting cycle in December now seen at just over 50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool," said a Barron's e-newsletter yesterday morning. "Policymakers continue to be divided, with Fed governor Christopher Waller publicly backing a cut while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson preaching caution in remarks on Monday, ahead of September’s delayed jobs report release on Thursday."

We may learn more about both the stock market's issues later today. This afternoon, the Fed is due to release the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting body, which could reveal more about decision-makers' views at that time. The minutes may give markets a better steer about the likelihood of a cut on Dec. 10.

Meanwhile, a little later, after markets close this afternoon, Nvidia is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings. Nvidia is the star of the AI boom, and a great quarter might reassure markets about the sustainability of the entire industry. Anything less could stoke fears.

Nothing much has changed since we updated you yesterday about the Fed's minutes and tomorrow's jobs report. So, we'll repeat slightly amended versions today.

The Fed

This week's scheduled event most likely to affect mortgage rates is this afternoon's release of minutes by the Federal Reserve. These cover the last meeting, three weeks ago on Oct. 29, of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Fed body that sets general interest rates.

Investors will pore over these minutes to try to glean new insights into the split between hawks and doves among committee members. Hawks are worried about inflation running too warm, and wish to hold general interest rates steady to slow price rises. Doves want to cut those rates on Dec. 10 because they fear that the labor market is in trouble. A rate cut then might stimulate economic growth and boost employment.

If doves appear to have had the upper hand at that Oct. 29 meeting, mortgage rates might fall because markets might conclude that a rate cut on Dec. 10 is more likely than they currently think. However, if the hawks dominated the meeting, mortgage rates might rise.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear at his post-meeting press conference on Oct. 29 that "A further reduction in the policy rate at the
December meeting is not a foregone conclusion — far from it." And various Fed officials have reinforced the point since.

But, until very recently, markets shrugged off those warnings. A month ago yesterday, markets were putting the chances of a December cut at 93.7%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A week ago, the odds had fallen to 62.4%. On Monday night, they stood at 42.9%. The chances improved yesterday, and are now extremely close to a 50-50 toss-up.

The previous drops in the odds of a cut likely contributed to the rises in mortgage rates at the end of last week. However, those rates might fall again if the chances improve or if the Fed springs a surprise by announcing an unexpected cut at its December meeting.

Thursday's jobs report

It's hard to predict how markets and mortgage rates will react to the jobs report (aka the employment situation report), due tomorrow morning.

On the one hand, the report, delayed from Sep. 5, covers August, which now feels like ancient history. On the other hand, it brings the first official data in nearly a month (the consumer price index was exceptionally published on Oct. 24), and its rarity value alone should draw plenty of attention.

Markets will be hoping that it shows fewer-than-expected new jobs created in August. A truly poor report might force the Fed's hand and make a December rate cut more likely.

What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

With a government reopening underway, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.

This week

That means that this week's calendar is far from certain. September's jobs report should be released tomorrow, but that might be the only official data all week.

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced, "The Producer Price Index for September 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. ... We will update the release calendar as new release dates are finalized."

Comerica Bank's economics team published on Monday this preview of the week:

"Financial markets will closely scrutinize the minutes of the FOMC’s October meeting this week amidst growing divisions among policymakers
about their best path forward. Currently, financial markets place the odds of the Fed cutting rates again in December at around 50-50, as
several of the FOMC’s voting members have signaled their preference for pausing the cutting cycle. Given stresses in short-term funding markets in recent weeks, financial markets are also likely to closely parse assessments of financial conditions from the Fed staff economists and policymakers, looking for signs of when the Fed will restart growth of the balance sheet.

"Besides the minutes, the largest event is the long-delayed September jobs report, which the BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] will release on
November 20. ... Other scheduled (but likely delayed) releases include industrial production and capacity utilization, which probably rose modestly in October. Building permits and housing starts likely registered an annualized rate of around 1.350 million last month. Homebuilder sentiment is expected to have shown a small uptick. The decline in mortgage rates last month probably boosted sales of existing homes. The flash estimates of PMI [purchasing manager index] surveys from S&P Global are forecast down slightly in November, but the University of Michigan’s consumer survey likely improved as the government shutdown ended."

Mortgage rates today

There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. One is the delayed August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, and the other is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Mortgage rates rarely react to either of these reports.

However, those rates may well respond to this afternoon's Fed minutes (see above).

This week

That means that this week's calendar is far from certain. September's jobs report should be released on Thursday, but that might be the only official data all week.

Comerica Bank's economics team published on Monday this preview of the week:

"Financial markets will closely scrutinize the minutes of the FOMC’s October meeting this week amidst growing divisions among policymakers
about their best path forward. Currently, financial markets place the odds of the Fed cutting rates again in December at around 50-50, as
several of the FOMC’s voting members have signaled their preference for pausing the cutting cycle. Given stresses in short-term funding markets in recent weeks, financial markets are also likely to closely parse assessments of financial conditions from the Fed staff economists and policymakers, looking for signs of when the Fed will restart growth of the balance sheet.

"Besides the minutes, the largest event is the long-delayed September jobs report, which the BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] will release on
November 20. ... Other scheduled (but likely delayed) releases include industrial production and capacity utilization, which probably rose modestly in October. Building permits and housing starts likely registered an annualized rate of around 1.350 million last month. Homebuilder sentiment is expected to have shown a small uptick. The decline in mortgage rates last month probably boosted sales of existing homes. The flash estimates of PMI [purchasing manager index] surveys from S&P Global are forecast down slightly in November, but the University of Michigan’s consumer survey likely improved as the government shutdown ended."

Mortgage rates today

There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's the November home builder confidence index.

Mortgage rates rarely react to this particular report.