The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.28% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.57%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.69%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
With bond markets closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, mortgage rates didn't move.
So, this morning will be the first time those rates will have had a chance to respond to the Senate's passing, late on Monday, of a funding bill that sets the stage for a reopening of the government.
We think mortgage rates are likely to rise on the news. After all, they've mostly fallen throughout the shutdown as the economic damage mounted.
However, there are never any guarantees with predictions of mortgage rates. The market that largely determines them has a mind of its own, and other forces (such as a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs) might intervene.
In particular, investors may choose to wait to react until the funding bill becomes law, although bond markets pride themselves on trading ahead of events, based on probabilities.
Steps to reopening
Now that the Senate has approved a funding package, two steps remain before the government re-opens after the longest shutdown in history. First, the House must pass the bill, and then the president must sign it into law.
The House is scheduled to begin voting on the measure at 4 p.m. Eastern today. But the process may not be as smooth as some seem to expect.
"[House Speaker Mike] Johnson will have to work closely with the White House to muscle this deal through the House, given it is unclear how many Democrats will cross over to support the package and Republicans hold such a narrow majority," said CNN yesterday.
"Fourteen moderate House Republicans had wanted to see the expiring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies extended and had their own bill to address the issue at the center of the shutdown fight," CNN's report continued.
No cascade of official economic data on reopening
Had the government shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case.
Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delays are inevitable.
"The short answer is all of the data releases that were meant to be coming out over the next few weeks of the government shutdown, you basically will take whatever the release date was, add the length of the shutdown, and probably add another couple days and that's how long we're going to be waiting," said Alec Phillips, the chief U.S. political economist at Goldman Sachs on Oct. 7, soon after the shutdown began.
More recently, Phillips' team has refined that view. "Goldman’s economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after the reopening, possibly next Tuesday or Wednesday," reported CNBC yesterday. "'But apart from that, we expect other major data releases to be delayed,' they said."
"When the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show more of the same as far as the economy goes — a slowing labor market, inflation still holding above the Fed’s comfort level and broader growth positive but also not gangbusters," continued CNBC.
We can probably expect the individual departments that publish data to release schedules of new releases next week, assuming the shutdown ends this week.
A slowing labor market would normally move mortgage rates downward, but too-warm inflation would typically push them higher. We'll just have to wait to see how those conflicting forces act on those rates once the numbers are finally released.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.31% | -0.04% | -0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | -0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.78% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.55% | 5.69% | -0.07% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.7% | +0% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.29% | 6.33% | +0% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.39% | 6.41% | +-0% | -0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.44% | -0.01% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.54% | 6.76% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | -0.02% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.38% | 6.41% | +0.08% | +0.04% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Until the government reopens, no more official economic reports are likely to be published.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Indeed, the only one remaining on this week's schedule is the monthly federal budget, due tomorrow afternoon.
