The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.33% yesterday, an increase of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.44%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.6% yesterday, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's ADP employment report came in better than expected. It said 42,000 new jobs were created during October, more than the 22,000 that markets were anticipating. Meanwhile, a purchasing managers' index from the Institute for Supply Management didn't help, when it, too, delivered a better-than-expected figure.
Those surprising data were likely part of the reason mortgage rates rose moderately on Wednesday. But another event probably contributed as well.
Supreme Court surprise
Yesterday, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) heard arguments about the legality of most of the tariffs currently in force. And, given that conservatives comprise six of the nine justices, many were surprised by the pointed questions most of them posed to D. John Sauer, the U.S. solicitor general.
"A majority of Supreme Court justices on Wednesday asked skeptical questions about [the executive's] use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on imports from nearly every U.S. trading partner, casting doubt on a centerpiece of the administration’s second-term agenda," reported The New York Times.
Markets responded: "Stocks rallied on Wednesday after some of the Supreme Court’s more conservative justices appeared skeptical of [the president's] authority to issue tariffs during oral arguments in a case challenging the levies," said Barron's.
Meanwhile, MarketWatch forged the link to mortgage rates, which often shadow U.S. Treasury yields, especially those on 10-year notes: "The U.S. Treasury market also was paying close attention to developments at the Supreme Court on Wednesday regarding President Donald Trump's tariffs. As prediction market Kalshi began reflecting a 30% chance Wednesday of a favorable ruling for Trump, 10-year Treasury yields rose. That was down from a high a day ago of about a 48% chance of a ruling favorable to Trump."
It could be some time before SCOTUS actually rules on the case. And, even if it finds against the government, that won't necessarily mean the end of tariffs. The executive branch will probably cite different legislation to justify them, although those other laws tend to impose restrictions on rates and duration.
New York City mayoral election
Not everything yesterday acted to push mortgage rates upward. They would likely have risen further had Zohran Mamdani not won New York City's mayoral election on Tuesday night.
"Zohran Mamdani coasted to victory in the New York City mayoral race with a platform focused on making the city more affordable," said The Wall Street Journal. "He has promised ambitious social programs like universal child care and more affordable housing, with plans to fund his agenda primarily through higher taxes on businesses and on New York City’s highest earners."
We make no comment on the desirability of Mamdani's policies. But higher taxes on companies and high earners are unlikely to endear him to Wall Street's big hitters.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.33% | 6.36% | +0.01% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.44% | 5.49% | +-0% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.6% | 6.81% | -0.05% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.83% | -0.01% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.63% | 5.77% | -0.12% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.74% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.34% | 6.37% | +0% | -0.07% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0.03% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.41% | 5.46% | +0% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | -0.04% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | -0.03% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.39% | 6.42% | +0.05% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there has been only one exception: For legal reasons, the delayed September consumer price index was published on Oct. 24.
Nothing else is expected to be released by the government before the shutdown ends. But data compiled by non-governmental sources should be published as normal.
Here's Comerica Bank's preview of this week's economic data:
"Payroll processing company ADP is likely to report private employment rebounded modestly in October after a decline in the prior month. The government’s jobs report would probably have shown a decline due to lower federal government employment, but is delayed by the shutdown. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs probably fell in October amid headwinds from ongoing trade disputes and the government shutdown. Vehicle sales likely fell, too, after EV tax credits expired on Sep 30th. Consumer credit is expected to have risen in September after
holding steady in the prior month. Consumer sentiment and households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are forecast to hold
steady in their early November releases."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But we are due a couple tomorrow, one of which might affect mortgage rates.
