The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.86%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.51%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Yesterday morning, we were wondering how markets would react to the previous evening's court ruling that voided most tariffs. Now we know.Stock markets moved moderately higher while bond yields fell with similar moderation. But is all that down to the judgment?
Probably not. "Thursday's rally in U.S. government debt picked up momentum following a $44 billion sale of 7-year Treasury notes that produced solid results," says MarketWatch. " ... Soon after the results came in, Treasury yields touched session lows." Mortgage rates tend to shadow movements in Treasury yields.
In any event, a federal appeals court "temporarily paused the ruling" yesterday afternoon, according to The New York Times. The appeals court is halting implementation of the previous day's judgment only to give it time to consider its merits.
But, at least for now, investors' hopes for an end to tariff chaos are dashed. Indeed, they now face even more uncertainty
A glimmer of hope for mortgage rates
In a different article yesterday, MarketWatch offered some hope to those wanting lower mortgage rates. It reminded readers of how gloomy the economic outlook is, and a struggling economy typically sends mortgage rates lower — as long as inflation stays in check.
"Uncertainty over tariffs and the economy not only looks poised to stick around longer than anticipated, the cloud it is casting over markets may be growing darker at a critical juncture for Wall Street," said the article. ... "Immigration has been dramatically limited, and government grants, loans and spending have also been cut. That could leave certain industries like agriculture and construction short on labor, while boosting unemployment in other sectors." ... "It could turn out that 2025 is just one long pause," said one analyst.
Economic data again fails to move mortgage rates
Mortgage rates barely budged yesterday despite some interesting economic data. The gross domestic product reading came in at -0.2%, which was better than the expected -0.4%. But April's pending home sales were even worse than anticipated. Instead of a contraction to -1.0% from March's +5.5%, the actual figure came in at a whopping -6.36%.Of course, it may be that the two reports simply cancelled each other out. But we suspect that markets were too fixated on tariffs to care much about either.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0.01% | +0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | +-0% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.38% | +0.03% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | +0.03% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.14% | 6.29% | +-0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.51% | 7.52% | +0% | +0.42% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | -0.12% | +0.24% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.91% | 6.94% | +0.01% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.89% | +-0% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7.37% | +0.03% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.37% | 6.52% | +0.02% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.98% | 7.01% | -0.15% | +0.26% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from today's data:
"The headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price indices probably eased in April, as businesses held back on passing higher costs to consumers. Cooler PCE inflation will be a welcome development, but seems unlikely to convince the Fed to cut interest rates near-term since last week’s survey releases showed that inflationary pressures are mounting rapidly. ...
"The University of Michigan’s final survey of consumers for May probably will improve, with a better outlook and lower inflation expectations after the partial rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports agreed on May 12 (The “90-day pause”)."
Of course, Comerica's forecasts are sometimes wrong, as are everyone else's, including market expectations.
Mortgage rates today
There are again two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. This morning's PCE price index is likely to be the most consequential for mortgage rates of this week's reports.
As with other price indices, the PCE is broken down into four main components. Two of these measure price changes within the reporting month (April) and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, this time measuring from May 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025.
One for each period measures changes to all prices in the survey. The other is the "core" figure, which looks at the same prices excluding those for energy and food. Those are excluded because they're especially volatile, and leaving them out reveals the underlying inflation trend.
Here's what markets are expecting for all four:
- April PCE: 0.1%, up from 0.0% in March
- YOY PCE: 2.2%, down from March's 2.3%
- April core PCE: 0.1%, up from 0.0% in March
- YOY core PCE: 2.6%, unchanged since March
Today's other report is the final reading of consumer sentiment in May. It's expected to be unchanged since the last reading at 50.8.
For both reports, lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.
Next week
Next week brings arguably the month's blockbuster data, the jobs report. That's due next Friday.
