The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.85% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.86%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.16%, having dropped by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.51%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates hardly budged yesterday in the absence of major news about either tariffs or deficits. Stories about those seem to be almost the only things investors care about at the moment.
So, this morning's gross domestic product (GDP) report might well cause barely a ripple. Unless, that is, it contains truly shocking numbers, something that's unlikely.
Things may be different tomorrow when the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation report is published. But we wouldn't bank on it.
A court ruling on tariffs might be big news
We'll have to wait to see how markets respond this morning to a surprise court ruling from a three-judge panel in the U.S. Court of International Trade yesterday evening. The Wall Street Journal reports, "A federal trade court ruled President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on virtually every nation, voiding the levies that have sparked a global trade war and threatened to upend the world economy."
If that were the end of the matter, we'd likely see some sharp reactions in markets later. But, of course, appeals to higher courts, up to the Supreme Court, if necessary, are inevitable. So, the outcome today is unpredictable.
However, stock markets in Asia and Europe rallied modestly overnight despite the near certainty of appeals. Indeed, The Guardian mentions unconfirmed reports that one has already been filed.
Fed minutes failed to move markets
At 2 p.m. Eastern yesterday, we got our first sight of the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
These could have caused a stir in markets but didn't. Why? Because the minutes contained almost nothing that hadn't already been revealed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues since the meeting.
FXStreet summed up the minutes thus: "Officials from the Federal Reserve indicated during their most recent meeting that they might encounter 'difficult trade-offs' in the upcoming months, with rising inflation occurring alongside increasing unemployment. This perspective was supported by projections from Fed staff that highlighted heightened risks of a recession, as revealed in the newly released Minutes from the May 6-7 session." Yep, everyone knew that already.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.88% | -0.08% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | -0.07% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.16% | 7.35% | -0.06% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | -0.03% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.14% | 6.29% | -0.05% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.51% | 7.52% | -0.04% | +0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.06% | +0.12% | +0.33% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.93% | -0.08% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.89% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 7.34% | -0.05% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | -0.02% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.13% | 7.16% | +0.15% | +0.37% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from this week's data:
"No material revisions are expected for either real GDP or the GDP Price Index when the second estimate for the first quarter of 2025 is published. Growth of both personal income and spending likely moderated in April after robust increases in the prior month. The headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price indices probably eased in April, as businesses held back on passing higher costs to consumers. Cooler PCE inflation will be a welcome development, but seems unlikely to convince the Fed to cut interest rates near-term since last week’s survey releases showed that inflationary pressures are mounting rapidly. ...
"On the housing front, pending home sales likely fell in April. A housing market moving closer to balance should translate to flat-to-modest monthly increases in house price indexes in March, further easing annual house price inflation. The University of Michigan’s final survey of consumers for May probably will improve, with a better outlook and lower inflation expectations after the partial rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports agreed on May 12 (The “90-day pause”)."
Of course, Comerica's forecasts are sometimes wrong, as are everyone else's, including market expectations.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
We're due the second reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year. On Monday, MarketWatch showed markets expecting this to be unrevised at -0.3%. However, that was updated on Tuesday, and the new expectation is for a slightly worse reading of -0.4%.
Today's other scheduled economic report is April's pending home sales. These are expected to tumble to a -1.0% contraction following March's 6.1% rise.
Typically, a lower-than-expected figure exerts downward pressure on mortgage rates, while a higher-than-expected one exerts upward pressure. However, markets have been shrugging off most economic data as they focus on tariffs and deficits, so today's reports may have zero impact.
This week's most influential report lands tomorrow and is April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. It's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Markets expect it to contain a mixture of slightly good and slightly bad data.
We'll brief you more fully on the PCE report before it's published. But remember: There's no guarantee bond markets, one of which largely determines mortgage rates, will pay any attention to any of this week's data.
