The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.9% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.23%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.55%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
We're due May's final consumer confidence index this morning, along with a couple of less important economic reports. But will anyone pay attention to them?
Bond markets, which directly affect mortgage rates, have twin focuses at the moment: tariffs and potential deficits arising from the "Big, Beautiful" tax and spending bill. And, judging from recent performance, any big news on either of those could easily distract investors from today's data.
There were plenty such news stories on Friday and over the weekend. We heard on Friday that a 50% tariff would be imposed on imports from the EU, starting June 1. But on Sunday, we learned that had changed following the restoration of "a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc to produce a deal," according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, Fox reports that the big, beautiful bill might face problems in the Senate. "Senate Majority Leader John Thune can afford to lose three Republican senators and still pass the bill, and there are more than that, right now, who have problems with it. Like the House, he will have to balance the concerns from moderate and conservative members of his conference," it said on Sunday. Right now, the aim is to pass it by July 4.
Investors are in two minds about the bill. On the one hand, they like its tax cuts. On the other, many are concerned that it will blow up the deficit and add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. So, far, bond investors seem more concerned about the possible debt implications, but that could change if senators amend the proposal sufficiently.
What does all this mean for mortgage rates? Frankly, who knows? The future for the economy and those rates has rarely been so uncertain.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.93% | -0.04% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.96% | -0.06% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.43% | -0.03% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.36% | 6.51% | -0.05% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.21% | 6.35% | -0.01% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.55% | 7.57% | +-0% | +0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | +0.04% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.95% | 6.98% | -0.04% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.93% | -0.05% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.21% | 7.41% | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.56% | -0.07% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7% | 7.03% | +0.06% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from this week's data:
"No material revisions are expected for either real GDP or the GDP Price Index when the second estimate for the first quarter of 2025 is published. Growth of both personal income and spending likely moderated in April after robust increases in the prior month. The headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price indices probably eased in April, as businesses held back on passing higher costs to consumers. Cooler PCE inflation will be a welcome development, but seems unlikely to convince the Fed to cut interest rates near-term since last week’s survey releases showed that inflationary pressures are mounting rapidly. The goods trade deficit likely pulled back in April but was still larger than any month before 2025 as importers’ stockpiling of imports slowed.
"On the housing front, pending home sales likely fell in April. A housing market moving closer to balance should translate to flat-to-modest monthly increases in house price indexes in March, further easing annual house price inflation. The University of Michigan’s final survey of consumers for May probably will improve, with a better outlook and lower inflation expectations after the partial rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports agreed on May 12 (The “90-day pause”). Durable goods orders likely fell in April after a sharp increase in the prior month. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a widely-watched proxy for business spending on equipment—also likely fell as businesses waited for greater clarity on the economic outlook and took a wait-and-see approach to business investment."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Of those, the consumer confidence index is likely to be the most influential. Markets are hoping it will hold steady at 86.0, but Comerica reckons it could do better than previously.
The other two reports are April's durable goods orders and March's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. But those rarely affect mortgage rates.Stand by for Thursday's second reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year, which is expected to be unrevised at 0.3%. Then Friday brings April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which markets expect to contain slightly good and slightly bad data.
We'll brief you more fully on both those before they're published. But remember what we said: There's no guarantee bond markets will pay any attention to any of them.
