The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.86% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.86%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.21%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.53%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell yesterday. But they still start this morning a little higher than they were a week ago.
It's hard to tell how much of that drop was due to economic reports and how much to other factors. Some of that morning's producer price index showed inflation cooling, though the headline figure showed it warming up more than expected.
Meanwhile, "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the US may be entering a period of more frequent supply shocks and volatile inflation ... " according to Yahoo! Finance.
Bond markets (including the one that largely determines mortgage rates) were unlikely to be cheered by news that the House majority is bringing forward plans to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, adding about 10% to the existing $36 trillion mountain, says The Hill. How come?
Well, it's simple supply and demand. When the government borrows more, that tends to increase interest rates for everyone.
Raising the cap is pretty much inevitable at the moment, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning that the United States could — absent a suspension of or increase in the debt ceiling — begin to default on its borrowing as soon as July. But a 10% hike seems a lot.
If you'd told us on Wednesday what would happen yesterday, we'd have predicted a rise in mortgage rates. That just goes to show how unpredictable markets are at the moment.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.89% | -0.07% | +-0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | -0.05% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.21% | 7.41% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.48% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.14% | 6.29% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.53% | 7.54% | -0.03% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.06% | 7.11% | -0.17% | +0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.94% | -0.05% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | -0.03% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.2% | 7.39% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | -0.03% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.41% | 7.44% | -0.1% | +0.44% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Here's what's on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Housing starts in April. Expected to increase to 1.36 million units (annualized), up from 1.32 million in March.
- April's import price index (IPI). Expected to fall back by -0.4% from March's -0.1%.
- May's initial consumer sentiment index. Expected to improve to 53.5 compared with its previous reading of 52.2.
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often drag them down.
Next week
Next week should bring much less important economic data than this week has. There's only one report due on Monday and none on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday's calendar has a couple of purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) and numbers for existing home sales. And we're due only new home sales data on Friday.
None of these typically moves mortgage rates far — if at all. So, at least we can be pretty certain that next week's movements in those rates will be down to news about tariffs, deficits and other economically significant stuff.
