The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.92% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.24%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.56%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates rose moderately yesterday. Mortgage News Daily (MND) said, " ... today's index ended up at 6.99% — all this despite an absence of any standout individual motivations in today's news."
MND's and our rates often differ a little, but almost always show similar trends. Meanwhile, we, too, were scratching our heads as to what might have caused yesterday's movement.
But yesterday afternoon, The Wall Street Journal came up with a possible answer, which makes sense when you know those rates often shadow the yields on 10-year Treasury notes.
"1550 ET – Treasury yields gain traction in late trade and the 10-year breaks the 4.5% level for the first time since February, in a day with no major U.S. data releases," said the Journal. "Producer inflation, weekly jobless claims and industrial production are due tomorrow, all likely to be factored into forecasts of Fed moves. Markets are mostly pricing two interest rate cuts this year, according to CME data. That is down from as many as four cuts priced in before the U.S.-China agreement to suspend some tariffs. The 10-year rises 0.031 percentage point to 4.529%."
In other words, the Journal reckons yesterday's rise in mortgage rates might be down to investors believing today's economic reports could cause the Federal Reserve to cut general interest rates this year less than previously expected.
In isolation, that makes sense as a hypothesis. However, why markets suddenly chose yesterday to pay attention to economic reports remains a mystery to us.
Deficits coming into focus
Yesterday, we wrote about the possibility of deficits soon becoming a second obsession (alongside tariffs) for markets. And we referred to how bigger ones of these "may not help the overall economy, nor contain borrowing costs for the rest of us."
Later that day, the Journal made a similar point:
"1110 ET – The U.S.’s gaping budget hole means Treasury yields will trend higher, Bank of America’s Mark Capleton writes. He points to data indicating less interest from foreign investors to finance the U.S. deficit. Decreasing demand for Treasurys would depress their price, pushing yields higher. BofA forecasts a $2 trillion deficit this year, expanding to $2.3 trillion by 2027. 'These are numbers that we expect to weigh on long-dated Treasuries,' Capleton says."
That bulletin appeared under the headline, "Treasury Yields Expected to Trend Higher as Deficit Widens." And you'll remember we mentioned earlier that mortgage rates tend to shadow one of those yields.With mortgage rates already close to an average of 7% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan for a highly qualified borrower, that suggests those rates could move even higher, a worrying possibility for those hoping to buy a home later this year. Let's hope other economic forces intervene to moderate rises and perhaps even generate falls.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.02% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.96% | +0.01% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.44% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | +0.02% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.15% | 6.29% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.56% | 7.57% | +0.01% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.23% | 7.28% | +0.03% | +0.35% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.97% | 6.99% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.94% | +0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.43% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.56% | +0.01% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.51% | 7.54% | -0.03% | +0.51% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Here's what's on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Retail sales data for April. The headline number is expected to tumble to 0.1% growth, compared with 1.4% in March.
- April's producer price index (PPI). Expected to climb to 0.3% from March's -0.4%, an early indicator of tariff-induced inflation.
- April industrial production. Expected to improve to 0.1% compared with -0.3% in March.
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often drag them down. There are other, minor reports scheduled for today, but these rarely affect mortgage rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver a speech at 8:40 a.m. Eastern this morning. Powell's remarks always have the potential to move mortgage rates. However, we doubt he'll stray far from the message he delivered on May 7, when he spoke publicly last. If we're right, he should change nothing today.
