The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.4% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.55%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.74% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.68%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Sometimes, the consumer price index (CPI) is even more consequential for mortgage rates than the jobs report. And this morning's CPI might prove an example of that.
Bond markets (one of which largely dictates mortgage rates) are exceptionally sensitive to over-warm inflation data. That's because bond investors buy a fixed income, and rising prices eat into the value of that income.
Wall Street is expecting today's CPI to show prices rising at a rate approaching 4% year over year, which is twice as fast as the Federal Reserve's target.
Still, markets retain their obsession with events in the Middle East. And big news on that front may overshadow even today's blockbuster data.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0.03% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.55% | 5.6% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.74% | 6.95% | +-0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.84% | 5.99% | +0.02% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.71% | 5.86% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.69% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.06% | +0.03% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.45% | 6.48% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.57% | -0.01% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.74% | 6.95% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 6% | +0.03% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.19% | 6.24% | +0.06% | +0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
You might have noticed worrying reports in the financial press about the likelihood of inflation getting worse. For example, in an e-newsletter on Sunday, The Economist wrote, "The Iran war is already causing pain for American motorists, who are paying more than $4.50 a gallon for petrol. Now Americans face a grocery-price shock."
Yesterday, MarketWatch had similar concerns: "The surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran war is set to drive U.S. inflation to a three-year high — and it might get worse before it gets better.
" ... That’s not the only downside of higher inflation," the report continued. "The increase in prices has handcuffed the Federal Reserve. The central bank is likely to be stymied from cutting interest rates aggressively, leaving the cost of borrowing painfully high for prospective home buyers and anyone who needs a big loan."
Clearly, we must hope that the Middle East cools down quickly and that inflation doesn't take too long to fall back to more normal levels.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," says The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview in an e-newsletter:
"This week’s CPI release is forecast to show headline inflation rose toward 4% in April and reached the highest in nearly two years, pushed up by higher gas prices. Core CPI is also forecast to pick up on the month on a hot shelter print. Part of that reflects mechanical catch-up from the gap in shelter price data during last year’s government shutdown. PPI likely accelerated to the fastest since early 2023 in April.
"The April retail sales report will likely come in soft, with consumers spending more at gas stations while reining in discretionary spending elsewhere. Industrial production likely fared better, rising moderately. Existing home sales likely rebounded in April after March’s drop, and are trending similarly to their pace last year. The median existing home's sale price likely rose in the low single digits from a year ago. The federal budget is forecast to swing to a surplus in April, but a smaller one than a year ago as tax cuts reduce revenues and as spending increases on defense and domestic security programs."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But the consumer price index is much more likely to move mortgage rates than the other one.
Price indices have four headline figures. Two of those cover the reporting month (April, today) and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, for May 1, 2025-Apr. 30, 2026.
Each reporting period has two components. Vanilla CPI covers all items in the survey, while "core" CPI covers all items excluding prices for food and energy. Given the role of gas prices in recent inflation, core inflation is likely to rise more modestly than the straight CPI.
Here are market expectations for today's four headline figures:
- April CPI — Markets expect a rise of 0.6% that month, slower than March's 0.9%
- April core CPI — Markets expect a rise of 0.3% that month, faster than March's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect a rise of 3.8% year over year, faster than March's 3.3%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect a rise of 2.7% year over year, faster than March's 2.6%
With inflation reports, lower-than-expected numbers are pretty much always better for mortgage rates than higher-than-expected ones.
Today's other economic data is April's small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business. It's expected to improve slightly to 96.2, up from 95.8 in March.
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse for the economy than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Tomorrow, we're due the producer price index (PPI), the CPI's little brother. Although it's nothing like as important as its big sister, it occasionally moves mortgage rates. However, with events in the Middle East dominating bond markets' attention, we shouldn't be surprised if it's largely overlooked this time.
