The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.92% today, an increase of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.89%, up by 0.1%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.38%, reflecting an increase of 0.15%.
The bigger picture
Trade
An important statement was released in Geneva, Switzerland, overnight. That's where
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson
Greer have been meeting over the weekend with Chinese Vice Premier He
Lifeng and his team. They've been working to de-escalate the trade war
between the two countries.
At 3:45 a.m. EDT this morning, The Wall Street Journal
reported on the statement. For 90 days, the U.S. has agreed to cut its
tariffs on goods imported from China to 30% from 145%. And China says it
will reduce its to 10% from 125% on American imports. The two sides
will have further talks to maintain progress.
Purely from the perspective of mortgage rates, this may not be what we want to hear. Good news on tariffs will likely push those rates higher.
Economic reports
Mortgage rates have barely moved over the last seven days. And they aren't all that different from where they were 30 days ago.
It doesn't feel that way because of all the drama — mostly trade-related — that we've seen in recent weeks. One noticeable feature has been that the bond market that largely determines mortgage rates has mostly shrugged off economic reports, including some that are typically the main drivers of movements.
Does this mean that this week's important reports will also be shrugged off? Quite possibly.
We're due the April consumer price index (CPI) tomorrow and the same month's retail sales data on Thursday. And those (especially the former) usually have the potential to be blockbusters.
The CPI will be watched especially closely. Investors will wish to see whether the increased prices that many economists expect higher tariffs to deliver are going to show up in the April figures.
Right now, markets expect only modest rises that month, with the CPI coming in at 0.2%, compared with March's -0.1%. A higher-than-expected figure could push up mortgage rates, while a lower-than-expected one could drag them downward.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.09% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.95% | +0.1% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 7.35% | +0.03% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.48% | +0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.13% | 6.28% | -0.09% | -0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.38% | 7.4% | +0.15% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.23% | 7.28% | +0.32% | +0.21% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.01% | +0.08% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.88% | 5.93% | +0.09% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 7.35% | +0.04% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.57% | +0% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.53% | 7.56% | +0.57% | +0.48% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
The only economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar is the U.S. federal budget for April. That's expected to increase to $256 billion from $210 billion in March.
It's rare for federal budgets to affect mortgage rates. But they may be becoming more relevant as fears grow of a ballooning deficit. For lower mortgage rates, we'd like lower-than-expected numbers.
