The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.38% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.56%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.74% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.68%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower last week. But the difference was small for a seven-day shift, and we're a very long way from the sort of strong trend you can rely on.
What happens to mortgage rates this week will probably largely depend on developments in the Middle East. Will the ceasefire hold, if imperfectly? And might peace talks make progress?
But we're due some economic reports that might attract enough attention on Wall Street to make a difference. The most important of these is April's consumer price index (CPI), scheduled for tomorrow.
Bond markets (one of which largely determines mortgage rates) are highly sensitive to warmer-than-comfortable inflation figures, and the CPI may be the most influential of all sources of price data. Two other price indices are due later this week, but they're not typically as important.
This week's other big economic report covers retail sales in April. This certainly can affect mortgage rates, but rarely on the scale of the CPI or jobs report.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.38% | 6.41% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.61% | +0% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.74% | 6.94% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.97% | +0% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.85% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.7% | +0% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.98% | 6.03% | +0% | -0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.53% | 5.57% | +0% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.74% | 6.94% | +0% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.97% | +0% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.14% | 6.18% | +0% | +0.12% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," says The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And it's unlikely to escape the shadow of events in the Middle East.
It covers existing home sales during April. And markets are expecting those to increase to an annualized rate of 4.1 million, compared with 4.0 million in March.Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse for the economy than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Stand by for tomorrow's consumer price index (CPI), an inflation report, which sometimes rivals the jobs report as a driver of changes in mortgage rates.
