The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.43% yesterday, a decrease of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.58%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.72% yesterday, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
It's unlikely that yesterday's ADP employment report had a perceptible impact on mortgage rates. All eyes were on dramatic events surrounding the dispute in the Middle East, and it was those events that drove those rates moderately lower.
Markets were optimistic that a settlement of the dispute is in sight, with global oil prices, bond yields and mortgage rates all tumbling during the day. Let's hope the sentiment extends into today.
But that's not guaranteed. "Iranian officials and the [U.S.] on Wednesday offered contradictory and rapidly changing assessments of the state of the war and peace talks, all while providing few details about those negotiations," reported The New York Times yesterday evening.
Even an immediate and lasting peace accord is unlikely to see gas prices immediately falling very far, nor the avoidance of a new bout of inflation lasting several months. Last night, the CME FedWatch tool put the chances of the Federal Reserve hiking general interest rates at its next meeting on Jun. 17 at 93.5%. While the Fed doesn't dictate mortgage rates, such an increase won't do those rates any favors.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.43% | 6.46% | -0.06% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.63% | -0.05% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.72% | 6.93% | -0.07% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.84% | 5.98% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.71% | 5.86% | -0.07% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.73% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.97% | 6.02% | +0.01% | -0.14% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.52% | -0.07% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.61% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.73% | 6.93% | -0.06% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 5.99% | -0.02% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.08% | -0.08% | -0.09% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview in an e-newsletter:
"Employers likely added jobs at a moderate pace in April, holding the unemployment rate steady at a goldilocks level of 4.3%. Wage growth likely picked up in year-over-year terms, though not enough to offset higher inflation. It won’t be possible to judge that precisely until next week, when the April CPI report is published. Other labor market data scheduled for release this week are likely to be solid: Job openings likely ticked higher in the delayed March release, and the employment sub-index of the ISM Services PMI likely improved in April."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Chances are, they'll all be overshadowed by news on the Middle East peace talks.
Still, just in case, those reports are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2 — Markets expect 206,000 claims, up from 189,000 the week before
- Productivity during the first quarter of 2026 — Markets expect productivity to have increased by 1.1%, more slowly than the 1.8% seen in the last quarter of 2025
- February and March construction spending — Markets expect spending to have increased by 0.3% in March and 0.1% in February, up from -0.3% in January
- March consumer credit — Markets expect consumers to have borrowed $12.5 billion, way up from February's $9.35 billion
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse for the economy than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Figures that are worse for the economy are usually lower-than-expected ones. But that's not always the case, and higher-than-expected numbers are good for mortgage rates when it comes to jobless claims and consumer credit.
Strap in for Friday's (normally) almighty jobs report.
