The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.49% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.63%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.8% yesterday, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.71%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Most months, the official jobs report is the most consequential of all economic reports for mortgage rates. The April one is scheduled to land this Friday.
Today, we're due the ADP employment report, which is sometimes seen as a bellwether for the official jobs report, aka the employment situation report. ADP data cover only private sector payrolls, while Friday's figures cover all nonfarm jobs, plus the unemployment rate and changes in hourly wages.
The question on every working day since the end of February is: Will today's data break through when markets are so distracted by events in the Middle East? You can never be sure, but we doubt the ADP report will, unless it contains shockingly good or bad data.
Oil prices moderated yesterday, limiting mortgage rates' movements. But bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) seem unable to decide what to make of the latest efforts, dubbed Operation Freedom," to open the Strait of Hormuz, and will likely remain fairly static until the initiative proves a success or failure. Last night, it was announced that the U.S. would pause the operation to facilitate further peace talks.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.52% | +0.03% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.67% | +0.03% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7% | +0.03% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.88% | 6.03% | +0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.93% | +0.05% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.71% | 6.73% | +0.01% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.96% | 6.01% | -0.03% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | +0.05% | +0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.64% | +0.03% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 6.99% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.01% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.15% | +0.01% | +0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview in an e-newsletter:
"Employers likely added jobs at a moderate pace in April, holding the unemployment rate steady at a goldilocks level of 4.3%. Wage growth likely picked up in year-over-year terms, though not enough to offset higher inflation. It won’t be possible to judge that precisely until next week, when the April CPI report is published. Other labor market data scheduled for release this week are likely to be solid: Job openings likely ticked higher in the delayed March release, and the employment sub-index of the ISM Services PMI likely improved in April."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's the ADP employment report for April.
Markets expect it to show 84,000 new private-sector jobs created that month, up from 62,000 in March.
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Strap in for Friday's (normally) almighty jobs report.
