The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.46% yesterday, an increase of 0.05% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.6%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.76% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.7%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates rose moderately yesterday, according to ICB, our preferred source. But Mortgage News Daily recorded a much sharper rise. The two monitors' snapshots often differ, but they generally track similar trends over time.
The cause of yesterday's rise was definitely events in the Middle East. "The ceasefire in the Iran war abruptly faced its most perilous moment Monday after the United States began trying to open the Strait of Hormuz to allow hundreds of stranded commercial ships to sail out," reported AP yesterday evening.
"The United Arab Emirates said it came under attack for the first time since the early April ceasefire, and a British military monitor said two cargo vessels were ablaze off the UAE," AP continued. "There had been warning signs around the U.S. military-aided effort to guide ships through the strait, as Iran called it a violation of the fragile, three-week ceasefire."
If the escalation continues, global oil prices will likely continue their rise, dragging mortgage rates up with them. And that could swamp economic reports for days to come.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.49% | +0.05% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.65% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.76% | 6.97% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.84% | 5.99% | -0.04% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.88% | +-0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.7% | 6.72% | +0.01% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.03% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | +0.03% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.76% | 6.96% | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.14% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview in an e-newsletter:
"Employers likely added jobs at a moderate pace in April, holding the unemployment rate steady at a goldilocks level of 4.3%. Wage growth likely picked up in year-over-year terms, though not enough to offset higher inflation. It won’t be possible to judge that precisely until next week, when the April CPI report is published. Other labor market data scheduled for release this week are likely to be solid: Job openings likely ticked higher in the delayed March release, and the employment sub-index of the ISM Services PMI likely improved in April."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
If any of them has an impact on mortgage rates, it's likely to be the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) probably should be more influential than it usually is.
Here are this morning's main economic reports, together with market expectations for each:
- March trade balance — Markets expect the trade gap to widen to -$60.4 billion from February's -$57.3 billion
- March JOLTS — Markets expect the number of job openings to shrink to 6.8 million from 6.9 million in February
- March and April new home sales — Markets expect sales of 660,000 new homes in April and 630,000 in March, following 587,000 in February
- Final ISM Services PMI — Markets expect an index of 54.3%, better than the previous 54.0%
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Normally, we'd expect at least one of today's reports to affect mortgage rates, if only a little. But markets' fixation on events in the Middle East might again overshadow these data.
Strap in for Friday's (normally) almighty jobs report.
