Mortgage Rates Today, May 5, 2025: Fed Wednesday Might Move Rates This Week
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.84% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.78%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.18%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.24%, reflecting an increase of 0.16%.
The bigger picture
Friday's jobs report was bad for mortgage rates, as we expected. And those rates moved higher over the whole week.
The potentially big event this week is the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, formally known as the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC. If it decides to change general interest rates, it should announce the fact at 2 p.m. (EST) on Wednesday.
The chances are it won't. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool reckons the odds of those rates staying the same are 96.8%, compared with 3.2% for a small cut. But these things are never certain, and a shock announcement would almost inevitably affect mortgage rates.
You may have read that FOMC rate changes don't have any impact on mortgage rates. And that's true when the Fed does what everyone's expecting. Investors trade ahead of announcements based on those expectations. However, an unexpected cut or hike is very likely to immediately affect mortgage rates, moving them in the direction of other interest rates, though probably further.
Almost as important as the announcement will be a news conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That's scheduled for 2:30 p.m. (EST) that same afternoon.
Investors will be hoping Powell will give clues to future cuts that the FOMC might have penciled in during its meeting. If he does, that, too, will likely affect mortgage rates. We suspect he'll continue his recent line: that the Fed must wait to see how the trade war and other issues affect inflation and economic growth before signaling its next moves.
Other things to look out for
We've recently seen policy announcements swamping all but the most influential economic reports. A couple of sensitive policy issues might emerge this week or shortly thereafter.
Tariffs remain markets' obsession, and any news on those might push mortgage rates higher or lower. The other potential issue is the government's plans for cuts to taxes and benefits. Congress should begin to publish parts of the overall plan very soon.
Many economists fear that tax cuts that aren't fully funded could blow up the deficit, increasing borrowing costs for the government and everyone else. And, yes, that includes mortgage rates.
Nobody yet knows how big an impact the upcoming tax cuts might have on those rates because nobody knows the size of the cuts nor the extent of reductions in spending that might offset some of the reduced revenue. But few believe the deficit won't rise as a result.
A doomsday scenario
In The Wall Street Journal today, Andy Kessler, a regular contributor to the newspaper and former hedge fund founder, painted an extremely grim picture of the next few months:
"A potential scenario: The economy nose-dives, inflation rises, profits plummet, private credit implodes, interest rates fall, the dollar drops
further, liquidity dries up, and dicey markets lead to more struggling times. How do we avoid this messy doom loop? It doesn’t take a degree from Harvard to figure it out. Zero tariffs. A Treasury secretary who promotes a strong dollar. Cut marginal tax rates to stimulate
investment. And a push for deregulation (instead of tariffs) ... Either way, the next few months could be ugly. How we emerge will define this era."
Kessler suggests lower interest rates. But, earlier in his article, he wrote, "Foreigners, especially in China, are already cutting back on purchases of our Treasury bonds—owning only 23% of our bonds vs. 34% in 2014. A weak dollar and upward inflation could easily send 10-year Treasury rates higher. Maybe 5%?" Mortgage rates tend to shadow those 10-year Treasury notes.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.87% | +0.05% | +0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.78% | 5.83% | +0.03% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.38% | +0.06% | +0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.28% | 6.43% | +0.01% | +0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.3% | 6.45% | +0.06% | +0.47% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.24% | 7.26% | +0.16% | +0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.83% | +0.08% | +0.47% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.96% | +0.05% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.76% | 5.81% | +0.03% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.37% | +0.06% | +0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.36% | 6.51% | +0.01% | +0.43% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.96% | +0.05% | +0.53% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
According to the MarketWatch economic calendar, we're due only two economic reports today. Those are both final purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for April covering the services sector. One's from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and the other from S&P Global.
Sometimes, unexpected changes to PMIs can move mortgage rates. But they haven't been doing so since tariffs began dominating investors' thinking.
Both today's PMIs are expected to decline just a bit. And it will likely take a much bigger change for them to get on Wall Street's radar.
Tomorrow brings only the trade deficit in March. That probably rose as importers raced to bring in goods before tariffs were due to be announced.
