The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.78% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.74%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.12%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.09%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
Today's daily article is published later than usual, so we can bring you actual figures from today's highly important jobs report.
The bigger picture
This morning's jobs report for April was probably disappointing for mortgage rates. It showed the labor market holding up better than many had feared. Check out the actual numbers further down this page.
The number of new jobs created that month tumbled significantly compared with March. But not as far as markets were expecting.
Market expectations are crucial because investors tend to trade ahead of actual data based on what's expected. When the new numbers are worse than expected, mortgage rates generally fall. When they're better, those rates often rise.
Certainly, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgage rates tend to shadow, were rising soon after the report was released.
Still, we've seen in recent days how readily markets have shrugged off hard data. So, there's no guarantee those yields and mortgage rates won't fall later in the day.
Recession or no recession?
Regardless of this morning's jobs report, things are looking bad for the economy. Yesterday, an e-newsletter from The Wall Street Journal trailed that morning's scheduled earnings report from McDonald's as an important advance indicator. "This is a big week for U.S. economic data, but one of the juiciest nuggets won’t come from the government or even a think tank," it said. "This morning’s McDonald’s results could give us superior insight into the U.S. consumer.
Why? "There’s a difference between how Americans say they feel and what they actually do with their money," the newsletter continued. "When they skip the fries with that burger, or bypass their favorite fast food joint entirely, it has tended to bode poorly for the larger U.S. economy."
Barron's reported after McDonald's released its results, "McDonald’s [stock price] fell 1.9% after the fast-food giant reported first-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ expectations and said U.S. comparable-store sales dropped 3.6%. The chain cited 'negative comparable guest counts,' an indicator that customer traffic was decreasing. Fewer customers might be eating out as concerns about inflation and a possible recession continue to mount. Visits to McDonald’s fell 2.6% during the first quarter, compared with a 1.4% drop for the entire retail and dining sector, according to data analytics company Placer.ai."
McDonald's having a bad quarter wouldn't be all that worrying by itself. But it comes amid an avalanche of poor data, from negative GDP reported on Wednesday to a historically dire consumer confidence index on Tuesday, plus many others in previous weeks.
What this means for mortgage rates
In her weekly Mortgage Rate Alert e-newsletter yesterday, Erika Giovanetti, a U.S. News senior editor, seemed to agree with much of our recent analysis of how a recession and a spike in inflation might affect mortgage rates. So, to provide the same content in a different voice, here's what she wrote:
"Until the next GDP data release, keep an eye on the upcoming inflation and employment numbers to get a better reading of the economy's well-being. If future consumer price index reports show inflation rising in response to tariffs — as many economists predict — mortgage rates might stay elevated as investors demand better returns to keep up with rising costs. On the other hand, higher unemployment readings could put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, homebuyers might not be drawn into the housing market by lower mortgage rates alone if they have existential fears about the state of the greater economy.
"The conflicting forces of rising prices and a weakening economy can lead to a phenomenon known as ‘stagflation’ – and in this case, mortgage rates probably wouldn't fall by much. Those who lived through the economic crisis of the 1970s will remember the pain that stagflation imposes on household balance sheets. At this point, though, it's difficult to forecast where the economy is headed given volatility in policy ... "
Inflation was likely given a boost overnight. Previously, low-value goods (less than $800) imported by consumers and small businesses directly from China were exempt from tariffs. That exemption ended at 12:01 a.m. today. So, if you want to buy a $10 T-shirt from Shein or Temu, for example, it will now cost $24.50 ($10 + 145% tariff of $14.50), payable on delivery, using an example given by The New York Times.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.08% | +0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.74% | 5.79% | +0.08% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.12% | 7.32% | +0.05% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | +0.09% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.24% | 6.38% | +0.01% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.09% | 7.11% | +0.02% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.76% | +0.12% | +0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0.08% | +0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | +0.08% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.12% | 7.32% | +0.06% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | +0.1% | +0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.87% | 6.91% | +0.21% | +0.19% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
Here, in bold, are the headline data from this morning's jobs report for April, alongside market expectations and the previous month's numbers according to the MarketWatch economic calendar.
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created in April) — Actual 177,000. Markets were expecting 133,000, down from March's 228,000
- Unemployment rate — Actual 4.2%. Markets expected 4.2%, unchanged since March
- Hourly wages — Actual 0.2%. Markets expected 0.3%, unchanged since March
As usual, worse-than-expected numbers tend to be good for mortgage rates. You can see that this morning's report was better than forecast in two key numbers and as forecast for the third.
