The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.44% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.57%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.78% yesterday, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
The situation in the Middle East continues to be the biggest influence on mortgage rates. Yesterday's economic reports seem to have had little impact, and we doubt today's relatively unimportant ones will, either.
"Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the biggest oil-supply shock in history," said The Economist magazine in an e-newsletter yesterday afternoon. "Perhaps the strait will reopen soon. Certainly, it is in both sides’ interest to reach a deal. But each side seems to underestimate the other’s intransigence. And futures markets seem to underestimate the physical obstacles to restoring energy supplies. Oil tankers move slowly. Demining the strait could take months. Partially mothballed refineries won’t immediately return to full capacity. The geopolitical consequences of all this are unpredictable. The economic ones will not be pretty."
Recessions may be ugly, but at least they tend to bring lower mortgage rates. Overheated inflation lacks even that silver lining, pretty much inevitably driving those rates higher.
Let's hope that The Economist is wrong and that the flow of oil will return to something close to normal soon. Otherwise, we may be facing higher mortgage rates for longer than most people currently expect.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0.03% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +-0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.88% | 6.03% | +0.08% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.72% | 5.87% | -0.09% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.73% | +0.05% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.03% | +0.04% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.52% | +0.03% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.55% | 5.6% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.98% | +0.08% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.01% | +0.08% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.15% | +0.06% | +0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are only two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And they're both purchasing managers' indices (PMIs).
PMIs can be helpful because they measure activity in organizations' purchasing departments. And that's a pretty good indicator of future economic activity.
However, both today's reports cover only the manufacturing sector, which nowadays is much less important to the economy than the services sector. So, we're not expecting fireworks today, and we suspect any movements in mortgage rates will be down to news about the Middle East or some other economically significant event.
Here are market expectations for this morning's two PMIs:
- April manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management — Markets expect a 53.0 index reading, a little higher than the previous 52.7
- April manufacturing PMI from S&P Global — Markets expect a 53.9 index reading, down from the previous 55.7
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Stand by for next Friday's official jobs report. That's often more consequential for mortgage rates than any other report.
