The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.46% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.6%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.81%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.9%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates did well yesterday. And that was a surprise.
That's because they've mainly followed war news and oil prices since the start of the conflict in the Middle East. And neither of those was positive on Monday.
What did go down well with bond markets (one of which largely determines mortgage rates) were remarks yesterday morning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He was much less worried about rising oil prices' long-term effects on inflation than most people expected.
"The bond market has been mostly reacting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments, while the stock market is 'entirely' focused on the Iran conflict, according to Mark Hackett, chief markets strategist at Nationwide," reported MarketWatch yesterday afternoon.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.48% | -0.07% | +0.48% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.65% | -0.03% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 7.02% | -0.02% | +0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.93% | 6.07% | -0.09% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.84% | 5.99% | -0.09% | +0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.9% | 6.92% | -0.01% | +0.37% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.07% | -0.09% | +0.19% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.52% | 6.54% | -0.07% | +0.45% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.61% | -0.03% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7% | -0.03% | +0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.92% | 6.06% | -0.08% | +0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | -0.05% | +0.26% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
On Monday, Comerica published in an e-newsletter its regular preview of the week's economic reports:
"The March jobs report is forecast to show employers added jobs during the month after a drop in February, but that the unemployment rate edged up as more job seekers entered the labor force. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index likely pulled back in March on higher gas prices and stock market volatility. The news flow likely pushed down consumers’ views of the job market to the weakest since 2021.
"Retail sales likely rebounded in February on higher new and used auto sales after harsh weather weighed on January sales. Individual income tax refunds are up 12.5% so far this year. Core retail sales likely rose moderately in February. Consumer spending was in good shape before the Iran War, but discretionary spending likely will look more cautious in the next release for March."
Comerica also thought that home price rises probably warmed up in January with gains of 1.5%-2%. We'll see if that's correct later today with publication of the S&P Case-Shiller home price index.
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often vary from market expectations because the latter are drawn from a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Markets may take note of the consumer confidence index, but oil prices may renew their domination of mortgage rates today. The other three reports due this morning rarely affect those rates at the best of times.
Here are today's reports, together with market expectations for each:
- January's S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) — Markets expect home prices to have risen at an annualized rate of 1.3%, more slowly than December's 1.4%
- March's Chicago Business Barometer — Markets expect this purchasing managers' index to have declined to 55.1 from 57.7 in February
- February's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Markets expect job openings to have been 6.9 million, unchanged since January
- March's consumer confidence index — Markets expect consumer confidence to have slid back to 87.5, compared with 91.2 previously
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Stand by for February's retail sales data tomorrow, and the official jobs report on Friday. They're top-tier reports.
